hope rises
Holy fuck.
There's a lot already quite disappointing in this election—basically half the nation choosing party over country—but, I woke up far more hopeful this morning than I was when I went to bed last night. As in: as of right now, in Biden maintains his narrow leads in all the unannounced states where he has a lead, he wins. It will be by the narrowest margin possible, but he still wins. I'm still holding out hope he can flip Pennsylvania and Georgia, but those may not be known for sure until the end of the week.
Those narrow leads were not there last night, particularly in key swing states Wisconsin and Michigan. Turns out mail-in and absentee ballots are making all the difference, as they are getting counted last and tend to be large-majority Democratic. Nevertheless, I went to bed last night feeling like there was a better-than-fifty-fifty-chance we were facing another four years of this narcissistic clown as president. Granted, we may still be, but with each passing hour it's less likely.
I haven't had this horrible a night's sleep since the night after the 2016 election. I was so stressed out about it all last night that it was literally making me feel sick. It was like stress causing COVID symptoms.
And what a stark contrast experiencing Election Night has been, this year versus 2016. I was out for drinks with Laney, Jesssica, Scott and Evan at Rooster's Bar & Grill (now closed) that night, all of us having arrived with the naïve expectation that Hillary Clinton would win handily. I can still remember the sinking feeling of dread as it became clearer and clearer it was indeed going to be Donald Trump. I honestly can't decided if it's better that at least we knew that night, or if it would have been like last night where no winner had yet been called.
And Trump was well ahead last night. This kept me awake for a slew of reasons, but probably the most significant of them the pandemic. Another four years of a president completely refusing to take that seriously? Half the country opting for that? And then: election integrity; climate change; criminal justice; reproductive rights—all just swiftly flushed down the drain, offering very little hope of making any real headway on any of those vital issues. But, even though I've now been saying for years the most important issue we face is climate change, in this moment it is an ongoing global pandemic. And even if we don't flip the Senate (and we may not), getting rid of President Fuckwit will be a game changer when it comes to that. I never thought Joe Biden was our best candidate, but I do believe wholeheartedly he will change everything about our response to the pandemic.
I couldn't even tell you how many times I woke up last night. When I told Shobhit this morning I went to bed thinking there was a better than fifty percent change Trump was going to remain president, Shobhit said he had come to bed 100% certain he would be. But, knowing it could make me feel even worse, when I woke up round 3 a.m. and checked the current state of results, I saw that Biden had taken the lead in Wisconsin. Suddenly, a shred of hope!
Shobhit woke up while I was getting ready this morning, having barely slept at all last night, and he told me around 7:00-ish that Biden had taken the lead in Michigan as well. With Arizona almost certainly flipping to Biden as well, those two states alone change the game, and they are the reason that, if his current leads do not change, then he wins.
I don't think I've ever experienced a presidential election before where a winner was not announced on election night. It's true that George W. Bush was not made certain in 2000 until December, but that was after news programs on election night actually did call a winner—multiple times, flipping back and forth between him and Al Gore. And I do remember this vividly: I was working for the Seattle Gay Standard, was in a huge banquet hall with the state Democratic Party at the Westin Hotel downtown, and the first one they called had been, indeed, George W. Bush. I have been in very few scenarios where hundreds of people's moods changed so collectively and instantly, and I remember filing out of that huge room with a bunch of people feeling incredibly dejected.
That hardly compared to the shock and trauma of Trump winning in 2016, as nobody expected that race to be close. We all hoped this year's race would not be close, and it's shaping up to be as close as it had been in 2000. It's also strange to be waiting so long to hear a winner declared (Trump's own idiotically premature—if widely expected—claim to victory last night notwithstanding), but god damn, am I feeling better about it all today than I was last night.
Shobhit did explain to me this morning, however, how, the 2020 census is going to shift electoral votes around, particularly from New York and California—both blue states—to the red/purple states of Texas and Florida. And if the Democrat holds exactly these same states in 2024 (as of right now I mean; that excludes Pennsylvania or Georgia), then he (or she!) will lose. That is something we will absolutely have to be cognizant of going forward.
In just the time between my starting this post and now, Wisconsin has officially been declared for Biden—by a margin of less than one percentage point, so the Trump Campaign has already said they will request a recount, just as Clinton had done in 2016 (without altering the result). I'm seeing chatter now both on Twitter and at the New York Times website that Biden will eventually take the lead in Pennsylvania as well, although that state is not expected to finish counting until Friday. But, assuming Biden's current leads hold and he wins Pennsylvania, then he will win the Electoral College vote by 290-248 rather than 270-268. I would be delighted to see that happen, although at this point I'll be thrilled just to see Biden officially called as the winner.
This has taken up literally all of my mental bandwidth since I ended my work day yesterday. I did make Shobhit and myself sandwiches for dinner. I did not even suggest trying to watch any TV shows other than the news Shobhit had on all evening, as I expected he would.
He also had trouble sleeping, and even got back out of bed and went back to the living room for a bit at one point. It's a strange thing, but quite the relief, to see Biden ahead today, and likely through the end. How things will go in this country over the next couple of months is a much bigger question; hopefully it won't be as bad as many seem to fear, in terms of unrest and/or political violence. And I sure as shit wouldn't put past the Trump Campaign any underhanded tactics during any vote recounts, but for now, the general assumption seems to be Biden will be sworn in as the president in January. For that reason alone I'm sure I'll sleep far better tonight.
[posted 12:34 pm]