I'd Like to Thank the Academy
(And the nominees are . . .)
Actor in a Leading Role
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: If Chadwick Boseman had not died tragically last year, I would likely say this is a toss-up between Riz Ahmed and Anthony Hopkins, both of whom were excellent in these movies—and, without Chadwick Boseman, Hopkins almost certainly would win this one. But, I cannot begrudge a well-deserved posthumous award for Boseman, who was also very good in this part, better even than the movie itself was.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Gary Oldman. He is a great actor but he is far from the best thing about the otherwise excellent Mank. Not that we have anything to worry about here anyway. Oldman wouldn't win this award even in another dimension.
Actress in a Leading Role
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Honestly this is a tough call. I have long thought Carey Mulligan was an underrated talent; maybe I would still choose her here.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Vanessa Kirby was very good in Pieces of a Woman, but honestly, only especially so in that tour de force opening half-hour birth sequence. In the rest of the movie she's kind of just fine.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami...
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Honestly, I was more impressed with LaKeith Stanfield's performance in Judas and the Black Messiah—although both of them were great. There's been some talk of so-called "category fraud" here, since both Kaluuya and Stanfield are the co-leads of that movie, but we all know neither would have stood a chance against Chadwick Boseman in the Best Actor category. I did just realize that, in all likelihood, this year both Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor will be won by Black men. Has that ever happened in the same year before?
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I think Sacha Baron Cohen is a very good actor. His role as Borat really does not belong alongside the others listed here.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I would be delighted to see Yuh-Jung Youn win—Minari would absolutely not be the same, thoroughly wonderful film without her.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I know we all want to see Glenn Close win an Oscar . . . someday. But, by all accounts: not for Hillbilly Elegy, which has been so critically derided I never even bothered watching it.
Animated Feature Film
Over the Moon
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I also think Soul . . . should win.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Honestly? Even though Onward is the only other animated feature I saw out of these five, and it was also made by Disney's Pixar Studios, the movie was absolutely nowhere near on par with the excellence typically associated with the studio. By Pixar standards, it feels like leftovers, or an afterthought. There is little particularly memorable about it, especially alongside the stupendous Soul—which I've already watched twice.
Cinematography
Mank, Erik Messerschmidt
News of the World, Dariusz Wolski
Nomadland, Joshua James Richards
The Trial of the Chicago 7, Phedon Papamichael
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I would also vote for Mank here.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: The Trial of the Chicago 7 is a fine movie, but it is less deserving of this award than any of the other nominees.
Production Design
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
News of the World
Tenet
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I would also edge out with Mank here, just because Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, being an adaptation of a play, thus has far fewer sets to design.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I honestly don't know why either The Father (which is very good) or Tenet (which is fine) were even nominated in this category.
Costume Design
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Ann Roth
Mank, Trish Summerville
Mulan, Bina Daigeler
Pinnocchio, Massimo Cantini Parrini
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I have to admit that in this category, the aforementioned two flms are the only two of these five that I've even seen. What the hell is this new Pinocchio, anyway? A Guillermo del Toro film? How have I not even heard of it? Weird. Anyway, Emma might have a better shot if it had more nominations in other categories, but . . . it doesn't.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I never saw Mulan either, and its costumes may even be great, but it's pretty well known now that the film, and its star, are problematic enough that there's not much reason to lavish it with Academy Awards.
Directing
David Fincher, Mank
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: And, if there is any sense and justice across the Academy this year, they will do another Director/Picture split and give Best Director to Zhao and Best Picture to Minari.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Another Round included here was one of the few genuine surprises among the nominees. And it's a fine film, but every other nominee here is more deserving.
Documentary Feature
Crip Camp, Nicole Newnham, Jim LeBrecht and Sara Bolder
The Mole Agent, Maite Alberdi and Marcela Santibáñez
My Octopus Teacher, Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster
Time, Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino and Kellen Quinn
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Which is as it should be! This may be the only Academy Award nomination it got, but I felt very strongly that Time, a truly extraordinary film that really transcends the documentary genre, was the best film of 2020.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: The only other movie I saw here was Crip Camp, and it was also very good, and showcased the extremely underrepresented disabled community and their civil rights history. I'd hardly call that one undeserving; I just think Time is a better movie. Having not seen the other three, I can't really comment here otherwise.
Film Editing
Nomadland, Chloé Zhao
Promising Young Woman, Frédéric Thoraval
Sound of Metal, Mikkel E. G. Nielsen
The Trial of the Chicago 7, Alan Baumgarten
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I was so impressed with the editing in Sound of Metal, especially the sound editing but that would mean nothing without great editing otherwise, I would love to see that one win this.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Again: The Trial of the Chicago 7, which is a fine movie, but its many Oscar nominations are kind of tipping it over into "overrated" territory.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I'm a little mystified as to why the hell Pinocchio was nominated in this category but not Promising Young Woman, whose makeup artists transformed Carey Mulligan into many impressive incarnations never seen in any of her other movies. She looks like a completely different person. Absent that film as an option here, even I'll have to go with Ma Rainey.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Based on the critical reception, Hillbilly Elegy is probably best left a movie not called an "Oscar winner." It has no real chance here anyway.
Music (Original Score)
Mank, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
Minari, Emile Mosseri
News of the World, James Newton Howard
Soul, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Soul. No other movie turned my head the way this one did, with its incredible original score. I might watch it a third time just to hear Trent Reznor's delightfully ethereal music again.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Anything that is not Soul.
Music (Original Song)
"Hear My Voice," from The Trial of the Chicago 7, Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite
"Husavik," from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson
"Io Sì (Seen)," from The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se), Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini
"Speak Now," from One Night in Miami..., Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Of these nominees, the only song I had heard before I was literally writing this was "Husavik" from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, a surprisingly good song from a surprisingly fun movie. Having just checked out all of the other nominees, I think I actually like "Fight for You" from Judas and the Black Messiah best. Granted, there is a case to be made for keeping Best Song nominees limited to songs that are somehow actually tied into the film's actual narrative, and Leslie Odom Jr. both acts and sings in One Night in Miami... But, well, I still like "Fight for You" best.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: This is sort of unfair, but, to be perfectly honest, I like "Speak Now" the least of these songs.
Sound
Mank
News of the World
Soul
Sound of Metal
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: How many times do I have to say "Sound of Metal"? Sheesh!
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I'm sure the sound in both Mank and News of the World is very good, but even Greyhound, a merely decent film, is more impressive on that front. That said, if Sound of Metal did not exist, I would want Soul to win this, even though it never would.
Visual Effects
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan
Tenet
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Tenet, I guess? It's the only one of these movies I have even seen—although The Midnight Sky has been on my list for some time, which means it now needs to move up on my priority list; it's easily accessible on Prime Video, after all. I had never even heard of Love and Monsters, but I guess I'll have to look into that too.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: The One and Only Ivan is a CGI talking animal movie about a gorilla named Ivan, available on Disney+. I gave it a look a few weeks back, just because I learned it was based on a gorilla who had lived in Tacoma (although I don't think the movie actually specifies that). In the opening shot, Ivan the gorilla speaks right into the camera, and I found it so instantly cornball-stupid that I turned it off in a matter of seconds. No thanks!
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
The Father, Screenplay by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
Nomadland, Written for the screen by Chloé Zhao
One Night in Miami..., Screenplay by Kemp Powers
The White Tiger, Written for the screen by Ramin Bahrani
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: See above.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: The inclusion of Borat here is truly a mystery, given how much of the film was improvised. What the hell is it "adapted" from, anyway? The original script itself? I don't get it. Okay, apparently "the Academy considers all sequels to be adaptations." Huh? Okay, whatever.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Minari, Written by Lee Isaac Chung
Promising Young Woman, Written by Emerald Fennell
Sound of Metal, Screenplay by Darius Marder & Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance
The Trial of the Chicago 7, Written by Aaron Sorkin
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Absolutely: Minari. It's a uniquely American yet unparalleled story, written beautifully.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I'd rather any of the others here win over The Trial of the Chicago 7, but that's okay, I guess I can still live with it winning.
Best motion picture of the year
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: as I stated earlier, what I would love to see here is Nomadland winning for Best Director and Minari for Best Picture. I honestly think that would be the best and fairest outcome.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I'm inclined to focus on two movies that are undeserving of this particular award: not just The Trial of the Chicago 7, but certainly Promising Young Woman, which has a lot of great things about it but also suffers from both plot and tonal inconsistencies. I'd rank The Father third from the bottom here, even though it also has a lot going for it. But, if we still allowed only five nominees in this category, those are likely the three that would have been edged out. Or at least they should be; I suppose a five-film set would probably have included The Trial of the Chicago 7 and edged out Sound of Metal, which would have been a travesty.
(Nominations for international feature, documentary short, animated short, and live action short were also announced, but I don't know enough about them to make any worthwhile observations.)
It goes without saying but I'll say it again I guess, just for posterity, since many years from now it might not be as known just how often it was said by this point: This past year has been a weird one indeed, in virtually every context, and movies are no exception. There is little doubt that this year's crop of Acasdemy Award nominees would have looked much different had the year been "normal"—not least of which is the fact of an Academy Awards ceremony significantly delayed. Without a pandemic, the Academy Awards would already have happened a month and a half ago. Also without a pandemic, a whole slew of these movies would have actually been released last year, but instead were released this year, either moved completely to streaming or VOD platforms or released concurrently VOD and in very limited movie theaters, what few of them open only at limited capacity.
I myself have not seen a film in a movie theater since February 2020. I took an unprecedented break from movie reviewing movies, for fully five months—seven months if you don't count the one movie I reviewed between February and September, Onward, which was relesed on Disney+ and was the first major release to become available that way. That said, an actually pretty typical cycle of Academy Awards hopefuls being released much later in the cycle still occurred, just, again, delayed: some still came out in the fall, but a bunch of them were released in the first couple months of 2021. This means that, with few exceptions, I still managed to review the vast majority of the films of note. The only glaring difference now is the absence of blockbusters, which were the only films that made real money at the box office anymore even before the pandemic, and those rarely became Oscar contenders anyway. Except maybe in the Visual Effects category—and, honestly, I would very much support adding a Best Stunts category as a means of bringing in more popular films.
That's for future years, though. 2020 still set most of the huge blockbuster and franchise movies aside, making way for a lot of smaller but excellent movies that might not have gotten the same attention otherwise. Some of the multiple nominees announced this morning probably still qualify as such movies, most notably Promising Young Woman (5 nominations), probably Sound of Metal (6 nominations) and even the foreign film (2 nominations, including a rare one in the Best Director category). Honestly, this crop of nominations is maybe the most satisfying I have seen in many years; I can find no egregious omissions. I would have loved to see some love for Never Rarely Sometimes Always, the second-best film of 2020, but its absence here is hardly surprising, given how small and sad it is. And although several of the nominees are about social justice in many forms, no one right now is interested in anything dispiriting—and this is possibly the most diverse slate of nominations there has ever been. So, let's get started.
Actor in a Leading Role
Riz Ahmed, The Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Here we start right off with the biggest lock of them all: if Chadwick Boseman does not win this award, it will have to mean we have entered another dimension, maybe one in which he is still alive.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: If Chadwick Boseman had not died tragically last year, I would likely say this is a toss-up between Riz Ahmed and Anthony Hopkins, both of whom were excellent in these movies—and, without Chadwick Boseman, Hopkins almost certainly would win this one. But, I cannot begrudge a well-deserved posthumous award for Boseman, who was also very good in this part, better even than the movie itself was.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Gary Oldman. He is a great actor but he is far from the best thing about the otherwise excellent Mank. Not that we have anything to worry about here anyway. Oldman wouldn't win this award even in another dimension.
Actress in a Leading Role
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: The odds here have long been on Carey Mulligan.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Honestly this is a tough call. I have long thought Carey Mulligan was an underrated talent; maybe I would still choose her here.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Vanessa Kirby was very good in Pieces of a Woman, but honestly, only especially so in that tour de force opening half-hour birth sequence. In the rest of the movie she's kind of just fine.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami...
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I think Daniel Kaluuya has the edge here.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Honestly, I was more impressed with LaKeith Stanfield's performance in Judas and the Black Messiah—although both of them were great. There's been some talk of so-called "category fraud" here, since both Kaluuya and Stanfield are the co-leads of that movie, but we all know neither would have stood a chance against Chadwick Boseman in the Best Actor category. I did just realize that, in all likelihood, this year both Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor will be won by Black men. Has that ever happened in the same year before?
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I think Sacha Baron Cohen is a very good actor. His role as Borat really does not belong alongside the others listed here.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Apparently, right now Yuh-Jung Youn has the best odds, but this remains a very competetive category.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I would be delighted to see Yuh-Jung Youn win—Minari would absolutely not be the same, thoroughly wonderful film without her.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I know we all want to see Glenn Close win an Oscar . . . someday. But, by all accounts: not for Hillbilly Elegy, which has been so critically derided I never even bothered watching it.
Animated Feature Film
Onward
Over the Moon
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: This is a rare year in which I have only seen two of the animated features nominated. I still think Soul wil win.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I also think Soul . . . should win.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Honestly? Even though Onward is the only other animated feature I saw out of these five, and it was also made by Disney's Pixar Studios, the movie was absolutely nowhere near on par with the excellence typically associated with the studio. By Pixar standards, it feels like leftovers, or an afterthought. There is little particularly memorable about it, especially alongside the stupendous Soul—which I've already watched twice.
Cinematography
Judas and the Black Messiah, Sean Bobbitt
Mank, Erik Messerschmidt
News of the World, Dariusz Wolski
Nomadland, Joshua James Richards
The Trial of the Chicago 7, Phedon Papamichael
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Even though Mank managed to garner 10 nominations, I think this will be a case where a movie that got a bunch of nominations wins only a few of them. But, this is likely to be one of those few, as the cinematography is a huge psrt of what makes the movie great.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I would also vote for Mank here.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: The Trial of the Chicago 7 is a fine movie, but it is less deserving of this award than any of the other nominees.
Production Design
The Father
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
News of the World
Tenet
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: This will either go to Ma Rainey's Black Bottom or Mank. Probably the latter.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I would also edge out with Mank here, just because Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, being an adaptation of a play, thus has far fewer sets to design.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I honestly don't know why either The Father (which is very good) or Tenet (which is fine) were even nominated in this category.
Costume Design
Emma, Alexandra Byrne
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Ann Roth
Mank, Trish Summerville
Mulan, Bina Daigeler
Pinnocchio, Massimo Cantini Parrini
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Again it's a race between Ma Rainey's Black Bottom and Mank. I am rarely very accurate in Oscar predictions, but I'm going to go ahead and say Ma Rainey will win out in this one.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I have to admit that in this category, the aforementioned two flms are the only two of these five that I've even seen. What the hell is this new Pinocchio, anyway? A Guillermo del Toro film? How have I not even heard of it? Weird. Anyway, Emma might have a better shot if it had more nominations in other categories, but . . . it doesn't.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I never saw Mulan either, and its costumes may even be great, but it's pretty well known now that the film, and its star, are problematic enough that there's not much reason to lavish it with Academy Awards.
Directing
Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
David Fincher, Mank
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I really think this is going to Chloé Zhao.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: And, if there is any sense and justice across the Academy this year, they will do another Director/Picture split and give Best Director to Zhao and Best Picture to Minari.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Another Round included here was one of the few genuine surprises among the nominees. And it's a fine film, but every other nominee here is more deserving.
Documentary Feature
Collective, Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana
Crip Camp, Nicole Newnham, Jim LeBrecht and Sara Bolder
The Mole Agent, Maite Alberdi and Marcela Santibáñez
My Octopus Teacher, Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster
Time, Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino and Kellen Quinn
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: This is another tough call, especially this year when not a lot of documentary features generated much in the way of lasting buzz. But, it still seems that Time has the edge.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Which is as it should be! This may be the only Academy Award nomination it got, but I felt very strongly that Time, a truly extraordinary film that really transcends the documentary genre, was the best film of 2020.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: The only other movie I saw here was Crip Camp, and it was also very good, and showcased the extremely underrepresented disabled community and their civil rights history. I'd hardly call that one undeserving; I just think Time is a better movie. Having not seen the other three, I can't really comment here otherwise.
Film Editing
The Father, Yorgos Lamprinos
Nomadland, Chloé Zhao
Promising Young Woman, Frédéric Thoraval
Sound of Metal, Mikkel E. G. Nielsen
The Trial of the Chicago 7, Alan Baumgarten
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Given its general frontrunner status on multiple levels, this will probably go to Nomadland.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I was so impressed with the editing in Sound of Metal, especially the sound editing but that would mean nothing without great editing otherwise, I would love to see that one win this.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Again: The Trial of the Chicago 7, which is a fine movie, but its many Oscar nominations are kind of tipping it over into "overrated" territory.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Emma
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I think, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, maybe? It does have impressive makeup work, especially on Viola Davis.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I'm a little mystified as to why the hell Pinocchio was nominated in this category but not Promising Young Woman, whose makeup artists transformed Carey Mulligan into many impressive incarnations never seen in any of her other movies. She looks like a completely different person. Absent that film as an option here, even I'll have to go with Ma Rainey.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Based on the critical reception, Hillbilly Elegy is probably best left a movie not called an "Oscar winner." It has no real chance here anyway.
Music (Original Score)
Da 5 Bloods, Terence Blanchard
Mank, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
Minari, Emile Mosseri
News of the World, James Newton Howard
Soul, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Soul.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Soul. No other movie turned my head the way this one did, with its incredible original score. I might watch it a third time just to hear Trent Reznor's delightfully ethereal music again.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Anything that is not Soul.
Music (Original Song)
"Fight for you," from Judas and the Black Messiah, Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas
"Hear My Voice," from The Trial of the Chicago 7, Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite
"Husavik," from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson
"Io Sì (Seen)," from The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se), Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini
"Speak Now," from One Night in Miami..., Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I mean . . . who the hell knows?
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Of these nominees, the only song I had heard before I was literally writing this was "Husavik" from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, a surprisingly good song from a surprisingly fun movie. Having just checked out all of the other nominees, I think I actually like "Fight for You" from Judas and the Black Messiah best. Granted, there is a case to be made for keeping Best Song nominees limited to songs that are somehow actually tied into the film's actual narrative, and Leslie Odom Jr. both acts and sings in One Night in Miami... But, well, I still like "Fight for You" best.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: This is sort of unfair, but, to be perfectly honest, I like "Speak Now" the least of these songs.
Sound
Greyhound
Mank
News of the World
Soul
Sound of Metal
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Sound of Metal, even with its great script and great acting, would truly not be the incredible film it is without its sound editing, which turns it into an immersive experience as the main character starts to lose his hearing. I have never been so focused on this category before—even as it becomes the first year in which the Academy combines Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. I think voters would agree with me, though—so much so that, were these still two different categories, Sound of Metal would justifiably win both of them.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: How many times do I have to say "Sound of Metal"? Sheesh!
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I'm sure the sound in both Mank and News of the World is very good, but even Greyhound, a merely decent film, is more impressive on that front. That said, if Sound of Metal did not exist, I would want Soul to win this, even though it never would.
Visual Effects
Love and Monsters
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan
Tenet
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Given that Tenet is the single bona fide blockbuster actually released this past year, I think it stands to reason that movie will win this.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Tenet, I guess? It's the only one of these movies I have even seen—although The Midnight Sky has been on my list for some time, which means it now needs to move up on my priority list; it's easily accessible on Prime Video, after all. I had never even heard of Love and Monsters, but I guess I'll have to look into that too.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: The One and Only Ivan is a CGI talking animal movie about a gorilla named Ivan, available on Disney+. I gave it a look a few weeks back, just because I learned it was based on a gorilla who had lived in Tacoma (although I don't think the movie actually specifies that). In the opening shot, Ivan the gorilla speaks right into the camera, and I found it so instantly cornball-stupid that I turned it off in a matter of seconds. No thanks!
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan, Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Nina Pedrad
The Father, Screenplay by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
Nomadland, Written for the screen by Chloé Zhao
One Night in Miami..., Screenplay by Kemp Powers
The White Tiger, Written for the screen by Ramin Bahrani
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: This one has to be Nomadland, its adaptation of a nonfiction book, with several real people playing barely fictionalized versions of themselves, quite the unique accomplishment.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: See above.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: The inclusion of Borat here is truly a mystery, given how much of the film was improvised. What the hell is it "adapted" from, anyway? The original script itself? I don't get it. Okay, apparently "the Academy considers all sequels to be adaptations." Huh? Okay, whatever.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Judas and the Black Messiah, Screenplay by Will Berson & Shaka King; Story by Will Berson & Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas
Minari, Written by Lee Isaac Chung
Promising Young Woman, Written by Emerald Fennell
Sound of Metal, Screenplay by Darius Marder & Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance
The Trial of the Chicago 7, Written by Aaron Sorkin
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I think there's a fair chance this is the one Oscar The Trial of the Chicago 7 will actually win.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Absolutely: Minari. It's a uniquely American yet unparalleled story, written beautifully.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I'd rather any of the others here win over The Trial of the Chicago 7, but that's okay, I guess I can still live with it winning.
Best motion picture of the year
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Nomadland has the slight edge here, but . . .
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: as I stated earlier, what I would love to see here is Nomadland winning for Best Director and Minari for Best Picture. I honestly think that would be the best and fairest outcome.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I'm inclined to focus on two movies that are undeserving of this particular award: not just The Trial of the Chicago 7, but certainly Promising Young Woman, which has a lot of great things about it but also suffers from both plot and tonal inconsistencies. I'd rank The Father third from the bottom here, even though it also has a lot going for it. But, if we still allowed only five nominees in this category, those are likely the three that would have been edged out. Or at least they should be; I suppose a five-film set would probably have included The Trial of the Chicago 7 and edged out Sound of Metal, which would have been a travesty.
(Nominations for international feature, documentary short, animated short, and live action short were also announced, but I don't know enough about them to make any worthwhile observations.)
The 93rd Academy Awards telecast will air on ABC Sunday, April 25 at 5 p.m. Pacific Time.