I'd Like to Thank the Academy

(And the nominees are . . .) And just like that, Everything Everywhere All at Once becomes the frontrunner—something I never, ever would have suspected when that film was released all the way back in April. I enjoyed that film a great deal, and gave it an A-minus. I reject the idea that it's the best film of the year, but am thrilled to see such an unconventional film, at least by historic Academy standards, get heaped with eleven nominations—the most of any film this year, followed by All Quiet on the Western Front and The Banshees of Inisherin with nine nominations each.If recent years are any indicator, huge numbers of nominations are no guarantee of wins (The Irishman was nominated for ten Oscars in 2020 and didn't win any of them). Still, 2023 is showing how the Academy Awards are evolving, an organization and an institution in flux, learning how to adapt to shifting motion picture industry landscapes while diversifying its voting body. The slate of nominees this year is both unusually satisfying overall, and featuring a stunning number of nominations for films I haven't seen, or in some cases never even heard of. In the case of All Quiet on the Western Front, I had no opportunity to see it in any local theaters, and although I knew it had a certain amount of buzz as a Netflix movie, I truly had no idea it had this level of Academy buzz. It's now at the top of the list of movies I still need to see. How about we just get right into it?
Actor in a Leading Role Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Brendan Fraser has been the frontrunner for months, but most of that was before general audiences saw the truly mixed bag that was The Whale. I will freely admit I frequent the odds-making website godderby.com, where they still rank Fraser at the top—but, with Austin Butler given the very same odds. I have a real feeling Austin Butler will edge him out in the end. 
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I'm all about Colin Farrell here, and not just because I think he's the hottest thing on legs (his not being particularly hot in this movie notwithstanding). There has even been some speculation that he could win this award, but I'm not holding out hope there. Both Brendan Fraser and Austin Butler have far more momentum.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Honestly? I'm not really here for the discourse that says Brendan Fraser deserves an Oscar for a great performance in a movie that is admittedly deeply problematic. I would love for Fraser to get an Oscar; I really like him as an actor. Just not for this movie, which does not deserve to be rewarded.
Actress in a Leading Role Cate Blanchett, Tár
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once WHO I THINK WILL WIN: For ages, Cate Blanchett has been the clear winner. That was before Everything Everywhere All at Once got eleven nominations, putting Michelle Yeoh neck and neck with her. It would usually be relevant that Blanchett already has two Oscars, but I'm not sure about that anymore, with the demographic changes of the Academy. So this is a really tough call. Right now I lean ever so slightly toward Cate Blachett.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I also think Cate Blanchett deserves the award. Her performance in Tár is brilliant, and far better than either of the other roles for which she won Oscars (The Aviator and Blue Jasmine).
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I don't care that I haven't seen To Leslie. The fact that she managed to snag this nomination via a weird last-minute social media campaign is just dumb.
Actor in a Supporting Role Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once"> WHO I THINK WILL WIN: You can all place your bets right now. This one is going to be Ke Huy Quan.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: My vote here would go to Barry Keoghan, whose performance in The Banshees of Inisherin is stellar. I won't be mad at Ke Huy Quan winning, though.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I have nothing particularly against anyone here (even though I hadn't even heard of Causeway, another movie I guess I need to seek out). If pressed, though, I suppose I would say Judd Hirsch makes the least sense—but only in this particular instance, in competition with the others. He's still great and he does give a great, if brief, performance in The Fabelmans.
Actress in a Supporting Role Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once WHO I THINK WILL WIN: The odds right now are on Angela Bassett, who, incidentally, becomes the first acting nominee from the Marvel Cinematic Universe. 
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: My vote here goes to Kerry Condon, whose performance in The Banshees of Inisherin did not get nearly enough attention in my opinion. I was delighted to see her get nominated. Her odds aren't that much lower than those for Angela Bassett, and if the Academy sheds a lot of love on Banshees, the edge could go to her. It's tricky, though: for the specific performances, I feel strongly that Condon deserves the Oscar, but for an entire career, Angela Bassett is long overdue.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: As much as I loved Everything Everywhere All at Once, here I'm going to say Stephanie Hsu, whose nomination I see as just a product of momentum in the broad love for the movie she's in. But I felt her performance was the weakest, most self-conscious in the film.
Animated Feature Film Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I honestly wouldn't have any idea if not for Gold Derby, which says Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio is ahead in this race. I'm kind of amazed to see, though, that Marcel the Shell with Shoes On is not far behind it.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: And I would rather see Marcel win this than Pinocchio, much as I enjoyed both. In my mind, though, of the three of these I actually saw at least, Turning Red beats them all, with its themes both universal and unprecedented in any film of its genre.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Nobody needs to be giving the sixth film in the "Shrek universe" an Oscar. 
Cinematography All Quiet on the Western Front, James Friend
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths, Darius Khondji
Elvis, Mandy Walker
Empire of Light, Roger Deakins
Tár, Florian Hoffmeister WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Apparently this is one race All Quiet on the Western Front is ahead in. I need to see that movie!
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I guess I'll go with Tár, the only film in this bunch I was a huge fan of. Even though I wasn't especially enamored with its cinematography specifically.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Bardo is absolutely the most "showy" of the films here, in terms of cinematography. The fact that it's practically begging for this award, though, puts me off of it. Also, there's a reason this is the sole Academy Award nomination that film got.
Production Design All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I think this will be one of a few undeserved awards Elvis is likely to win.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Babylon did not really work for me overall, but its grand production design can't really be denied. 
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Did I mention Elvis?
Costume Design Babylon, Mary Zophres
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Ruth Carter
Elvis, Catherine Martin
Everything Everywhere All at Once, Shirley Kurata
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Jenny Beavan WHO I THINK WILL WIN: It may be that this is the only award for which Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is a lock.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I'm also going to go with Wakanda Forever on this one. The film has its flaws, but much like its predecessor, the costume design is flawless.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Elvis needs to just . . . shut up!
Directing Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, Tár
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I am increasingly convinced that this will be yet another year with a split between Best Director and Best Picture, and that Steven Spielberg will win this award.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I didn't even realize it until this very moment, but if I were voting right now . . . I would actually give this one to Todd Field. He's not going to win this one though.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I would not be unhappy with any of these people winning, actually.
Film Editing The Banshees of Inisherin, Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
Elvis, Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
Everything Everywhere All at Once, Paul Rogers
Tár, Monika Willi
Top Gun: Maverick, Eddie Hamilton WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Everything Everywhere All at Once is almost certainly the frontrunner here.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: And you know what? If Everything Everywhere All at Once truly showcased anything at all, with its massive amount of dimension-hopping, it is wildly skilled editing.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Evlis in this category? Please. If anything, that movie had too little editing.
Makeup and Hairstyling All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I fear that the Academy will give an award to The Whale just for its fat suit.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I would also give this one to Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. That film just has a stellar look, all around.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Neither Brendan Fraser's fat suit in The Whale nor Tom Hanks's fat suit in Elvis should be encouraged with any kind of award.
Music (Original Score) All Quiet on the Western Front, Volker Bertelmann
Babylon, Justin Hurwitz
The Banshees of Inisherin, Carter Burwell
Everything Everywhere All at Once, Son Lux
The Fabelmans, John Williams WHO I THINK WILL WIN: At the moment I'll put my money on The Banshees of Inisherin here.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: To be perfectly frank, I can't remember the score from any one of these movies. They could run a random lottery for this award and I wouldn't care any more or less.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: See above.
Music (Original Song) "Applause," from Tell It Like a Woman, Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
"Hold My Hand," from Top Gun Maverick, Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
"Lift Me Up," from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler
"Naatu Naatu," from RRR, Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose
"This Is a Life," from Everything Everywhere All at Once, Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne WHO I THINK WILL WIN: "Naatu Naatu" seems to be the favorite in this category . . .
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: . . . which would be delightful. The rest of the nominees here are almost shockingly bland tracks, especially coming from superstars like Lady Gaga or Rihanna. You know what's going to be a showstopper live at the Oscars telecast? A live performance of "Naatu Naatu."
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I truly love both Lady Gaga and Rihanna. Neither of their snoozefest songs need an Oscar.
Visual Effects All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun Maverick WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I mean . . . duh. Avatar: The Way of Water.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I mean . . . duh. Avatar: The Way of Water. The visual effects are the reason to see that film, which wowed me like no other film has in more than a decade. 
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I really enjoyed The Batman a lot, and it has several stunning action sequences. But, it really can't compete with the other films here when it comes to visual effects.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay) All Quiet on the Western Front, Screenplay - Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Written by Rian Johnson
Living, Written by Kazuo Ishiguro
Top Gun: Maverock, Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
Women Talking, Screenplay by Sarah Polley WHO I THINK WILL WIN: This category seems to be a bit of a toss up. But, it may just be the only one of the two nominations for Women Talking to get a win.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Among these nominees, I'll also have to go with Women Talking. But, check back with me after I see All Quiet on the Western Front.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I truly don't even understand how or why Top Gun: Maverick is nominated in this category.
Writing (Original Screenplay) The Banshees of Inisherin, Written by Martin McDonagh
Everything Everywhere All at Once, Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
The Fabelmans, Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner
Tár, Written by Todd Field
Triangle of Sadness, Written by Ruben Östlund WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I may be tipping toward this movie at the expense of Everything Everywhere All at Once too often, but I'm still going with The Banshees of Inisherin here.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I'm actually tempted to go with Triangle of Sadness here, which I loved just as much, but ultimately my vote goes to the deeply nuanced screenplay for Tár.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: All five of these films are worthy. It's nice when a category does not feature a dud.
Best motion picture of the year All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I never would have imagined it possible nine months ago, but right now it really seems as though Everything Everywhere All at Once is going to take this award.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Tár, by just a hair, is the best of these films. It doesn't have a chance in hell of winning this award.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Oh, shit, how much time do you have? Avatar: The Way of Water. Elvis. Top Gun Maverick. The Academy is just throwing a bone to people who want to see populist films get nominated—or three bones, really—and none of these have any business even being considered for Best Picture.
(Nominations for international feature film, documentary feature, documentary short, animated short, live action short, sound editing, and sound mixing were also announced, but I don't know enough about them to make any worthwhile observations.) The 95th Academy Awards telecast will air on ABC Sunday, March 12 at 4 p.m. Pacific Time. .

I'd Like to Thank the Academy

(And the nominees are . . .) Last year's analysis of Oscar nominations was the most wildly different from any I had done before, for a multitude of reasons, although all of them stemmed from the fact that we were in the middle of a pandemic. The nominees weren't even announced until mid-March; none of the major nominees were box office successes of any note, thanks to theater closures; every single one of the Best Picture nominees I watched either streaming or VOD at home. So many of the would-be blockbusters originally slated for 2020 release were pushed to 2021, making last year's slate of Visual Effects nominees particularly bizarre, with only one of them (Christopher Nolan's Tenet) even seeming normal. Compared to all of that, this year's slate of nominees is far closer to what previously passed for "normal," and yet comparatively, it's kind of a mixed bag. At least, when it comes to what might have been expected in years prior to 2020. Plenty of excellent and deserving films were nominated this year, and plenty of them even got theatrical releases—although several that even had theatrical releases I still watched streaming at home. With the whiplash-inducing changes of COVID mitigation measures, first with what promised to be a freeing "hot vax summer" only to get derailed first by the Delta variant and then the truly overwhelming Omicron variant, even with theaters open for business consistently since the spring, only a select few such releases actually translated to what once passed for genuine box office success. The pressing question now is, how many people have even seen most of these movies? It's an ironic question, given that it could be argued most of the nominees are far more accessible than any slate of Academy Award-nominated films has ever been before. Even theatrical releases wind up either streaming or on VOD far sooner after theatrical release than ever before, and the most-nominated film this year, The Power of the Dog with 12 nominations, is available on Netflix, having only gotten a limited theatrical release to qualify as an Oscar contender. I didn't even get a local theatrical release of that film here in Seattle, and I really wish I had. The second-most nominated film, Dune with 10 nominations, got a simultaneous release in theaters and streaming for a month on HBO Max. There remain some exceptions; Spielberg's remake of West Side Story (7 nominations) is still currently only in theaters, and Kenneth Branagh's Belfast (also 7 nominations) is available on VOD, but for $19.99. Both of them will surely be available to watch at home at a lower price within a matter of weeks, though. There remains a lot of hand-wringing about what the long term consequences of the pandemic will be on both the movie industry and the Academy Awards. For now, all I can say is, great films are still getting made, and it's easier to find them more quickly than ever—at least on average. Which is why, even though the Academy still hardly always gets it right, the Oscars remain relevant, the steep dive in the ceremony's viewership notwithstanding. So, let's get on with it!
Actress in a Leading Role Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Three months ago I would have sworn Kristen Stewart was a shoo-in. After she was left out of most of the other awards bodies' nominations (most notably the SAG Awards), it's almost a surprise she still got included here. Goldderby.com, which calculates odds on all of these races, now has Olivia Colman as the front-runner. I feel like this category is still pretty competitive, but I guess I would currently put my money on who has the best odds.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: It astonishes me that Spencer resonated with virtually no one . . . except for me; it was, no contest, my favorite movie of 2021. After years of being relatively unimpressed with Kristen Stewart, now I'm dying for her to win this award. And she's not going to!
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I wouldn't be mad at any of these women winning, really. But, I would still argue Jessica Chastain is the least deserving here. An incredible physical transformation is not the same as a great performance, and her performance in The Eyes of Tammy Faye was . . . fine.
Actor in a Leading Role Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick...BOOM!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth WHO I THINK WILL WIN: This year, it has long been clear that Will Smith is the man to beat for Best Actor.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Honestly? If I were a voting member of the Academy, I'd vote for Andrew Garfield. He embodies the character of real-life Broadway writer and composer Jonathan Larson so fantastically, he disappears in the part—and without any major prosthetics or makeup to augment the transformation.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I love Javier Bardem. But, I'm kind of mystified as to how he even got nominated for this particular part. He's good in it, but it's nothing special; it's Nicole Kidman whose performance truly impresses in Being the Ricardos.
Actress in a Supporting Role Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana Debose, West Side Story
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Another one easy to predict: Ariana Debose. And if you haven't seen West Side Story, you need to get on it. Debose is reason enough alone to see it.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Everyone here is excellent, really. I think Kirsten Dunst, here with her first-ever Oscar nomination, barely edges out the competition, and she gets my vote.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Judi Dench, I guess? Nothing against her here—I really love her, actually—but she's already got an Oscar. Granted, she hasn't won one since 1998, and it was for all of eight minutes in the ridiculously pretentious Shakespeare In Love. I'd actually love to see her win again, I just don't think it should be for this particular movie (even though I liked Belfast, and I liked her in it).
Actor in a Supporting Role Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Somewhat to my pleasant surprise, the front-runner here is apparently Kodi Smit-McPhee, a 25-year-old actor who has been impressing me with his acting since he was 12 in The Road (2009) and 13 in Let Me In (2010). I would put my money on him at the moment, but Troy Kotsur also has a shot.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Kodi Smit-McPhee also gets my vote.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Being the Ricardos was pretty good, but is revealed by these nominations to be wildly overrated. J.K. Simmons is a fine actor, but he doesn't have a chance in hell of winning this award this year, and that's as it should be.
Animated Feature Film Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Historically, it's the Pixar film that's the shoo-in, but Luca, which exclusively streamed on Disney+ and was merely pretty good, falters in the shadow of other nominees here. Encanto is presently the front-runner, which had both a theatrical release and is available now on Disney+ as well. And while I liked Encanto slightly less even than Luca (B-minus versus solid B), it appears I am in the minority here, as ever since that one's been streaming, social media has been rampant with takes and, especially, covers of its runaway smash song "We Don't Talk About Bruno."
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: This should be no contest, but I am not likely to get what I want here. Flee, about a gay Aghan refugee in Denmark, is not only the first film to be nominated the same year for Animated Feature, Documentary Feature and International Feature, but it's superb. It should win in all three categories. My guess is it will win in just one of them.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I have no particularly passionate objection to any of these movies, but by a slim margin, I'd say Raya and the Last Dragon is the least deserving. Funny how three of these nominees are Disney films (two Disney Animation Studios and one Pixar), and all three of them are the weaker entries here. Setting Flee aside, among the other four that were clearly made for children, The Mitchells vs the Machines is the most sophisticated accomplishment in terms of both writing and animation.
Cinematography Dune, Greig Fraser
Nightmare Alley, Dan Laustsen
The Power of the Dog, Ari Wegner
The Tragedy of Macbeth, Bruno Delbonnel
West Side Story, Janusz Kaminski WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Given its staggering 12 nominations overall, it feels like The Power of the Dog has a kind of surprising shot here—but, not nearly to the degree that Dune does. And it's not like Dune is any slouch in this year's overall race; it has 10 nominations of its own.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: All of these films are shot beautifully. Dune, however, was the most memorably stunning. Even if you can't always understand what's going on, you cannot take your eyes off that movie.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I'm going to say The Power of the Dog here, even though I truly loved that movie, and even think, as I said, it was beautifully shot. But, I could never get past the knowledge that I was actually looking at New Zealand when it was supposed to be 1925 Montana. Some of the landscapes are almost otherworldly, in a way I'm not convinced can be found anywhere in Montana.
Production Design Dune Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story WHO I THINK WILL WIN:  I have a feeling Dune will sweep a bunch of the awards that are not for acting, directing or Best Picture, which would include this one.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: This is kind of a tough call. I'm tempting to say this is the one award I think The Tragedy of Macbeth deserves—it's easy to credit its cinematography, but the entire film was shot on impeccably designed, quasi-brutalist soundstage sets. I wouldn't be mad at a win there. But, my vote still goes to Dune, which is stunningly successful at world building as part of what was long thought to be an impossible task of literary adaptation.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: All of these films have great production design, to be honest. No further notes.
Costume Design Cruella, Jenny Beavan
Cryano, Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran
Dune, Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan
Nightmare Alley, Luis Sequeira
West Side Story, Paul Tazewell WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Gold Derby cites Cruella as the frontrunner in this category, and I fear they may be right—it's the only movie that blatantly calls attention to its costumes, as its title character is literally a fashion designer.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Dune is tempting, as it is for all of these design categories, but in this case I think I'm going for West Side Story. And that movie deserves more than just one Oscar.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I find Cruella's odds irritating. It's too easy, lazy, low hanging fruit. Pay more attention, people!
Documentary (Feature) Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul (..Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Writing with Fire WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I often have seen so few of these films by the time the nominees are announced that I don't even include the category in my analysis, and even this year I have only seen one of them (Flee). That said, I have heard enough about Summer of Soul from the many movie podcasts I listen to, to know that it is the clear front runner. Questlove's documentary about the Harlem Cultural Festival in 1969 is widely beloved.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: As always, I am pulling for Flee. But, I'm not really being fair. If a bunch of people say Summer of Love is better, who am I to argue?
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: After doing a bit of spot research, every single one of these films sounds amazing, and I can't believe I've never heard of three of them: Ascension (Paramount+) is about the pursuit of the "Chinese Dream" in modern China; Attica (Prime Video) is, as you likely expect, about the 1971 prison rebellion; and Writing with Fire (on DVD and VOD March 1) is about India's only newspaper run by Dalit (lowest caste) women. Instead of saying any of these don't deserve an Oscar, I'm going to seek out every one of these films.
Directing Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story WHO I THINK WILL WIN: This one might be the biggest "duh" of them all: Jane Campion. I'm baffled that Denis Villeneuve was not nominated here for Dune, but even if he were, Campion would remain the front runner.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Jane Campion. She is one of only seven women ever nominated for Best Director, and she's the first in history to be nominated twice. It will be great to see her make history by winning.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Spielberg did a great job updating West Side Story, but come on. That man already has three Oscars. He doesn't need to get greedy!
Film Editing Don't Look Up, Hank Corwin
Dune, Joe Walker
King Richard, Pamela Martin
The Power of the Dog, Peter Sciberras
tick, tick...BOOM!, Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Gold Derby says Dune is the front runner, and I have no reason to disagree with them. As indicated previously, Dune may well sweep the technical categories.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I'm pulling hard for Dune in this category, actually. I had to see it twice to fully appreciate it, but the editing in that movie, particularly considering its sweeping, epic scope, is—to be a little on the nose—stellar.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Okay, so now we start in with the four nominations for the simultaneously polarizing and wildly overrated Don't Look Up, a movie that's far too pleased with itself while also being too on the nose. I really wanted to enjoy this movie and then found it fundamentally useless. And by the way? At 138 minutes, as a supposed comedy, it's far too long. The editor didn't even do his fucking job!
International Feature Drive My Car, Japan
Flee, Denmark
The Hand of God, Italy
Lulana: A Yak in the Classroom, Bhutan
The Worst Person in the World, Norway WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Seems hard to predict. God Derby has Drive My Car as the front runner, and given its wild critical acclaim (far greater than I quite understand), that tracks. But, The Worst Person in the World has real momentum, and that combined with it being a romantic comedy could push it ahead.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Oh, my god. How many times do I have to say it! Flee. Unfortunately, it's not the frontrunner in any of its three categories, which is a travesty of justice. On the other hand, Gold Derby has it ranked #2 in the odds for all three categories, so you never know.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I actually saw Paolo Sorrentino's The Hand of God, and although I found it relatively enjoyable—nice to look at—I also really could not make sense of it. A win in this category would be truly baffling.
Makeup and Hairstyling Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Another one that's low hanging fruit: The Eyes of Tammy Faye will probably get this, just because of the radical transformation of Jessica Chastain into Tammy Faye Bakker. Turning Andrew Garfield into Jim Bakker wasn't nothing either. Either way, it's showy in a way that unfortunately overshadows more nuanced achievements in other films.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I'm not above leaning into contradictions when it comes to low hanging fruit: Tomothée Chalamet's hair is almost—almost!—too perfect in Dune. Give that movie the Oscar!
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: House of Gucci is way too smugly bombastic to deserve any Oscars.
Music (Original Score) Don't Look Up, Nicholas Britell
Dune, Hans Zimmer
Encanto, Germaine Franco
Parallel Mothers, Alberto Iglesias
The Power of the Dog, Jonny Greenwood WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Gold Derby's listed odds have Dune dropping, but still in the frontrunner position. Honestly, I think it's too early to tell. I didn't pay that much attention to the score in these movies anyway.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: The only one I even vaguely remember, really is Dune. So, okay sure. Give Dune this award.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Seriously. Do not give Don't Look Up any Oscars. Not even as a consolation prize!
Music (Original Song) "Be Alive," from King Richard, Music and Lyric by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter
"Dos Oruguitas," from Encanto, Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda
"Down to Joy," from Belfast, Music and Lyric by Van Morrison
"No Time to Die," from No Time to Die, Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell
"Somehow You Do," from Four Good Days, Music and Lyric by Diane Warren WHO I THINK WILL WIN: This really feels like no contest. Beyoncé is by far the most famous contender here, plus her song is actually the best of these five. It seems logical that she will win. Gold Derby says "No Time to Die" is the frontrunner but I'm still standing by this.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I'm also in Beyoncé's corner with this one. By comparison, all of the other songs are forgettable.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I usually pick just one here, but in this case I have two. First, Van Morrison is an anti-vaxxer, so, fuck that guy. Second, I actually like Billie Eilish generally speaking, but her "No Time to Die" is the dullest Bond theme song in ages.
Visual Effects Dune
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home WHO I THINK WILL WIN: This isn't even a fair contest. On average, the visual effects among these five movies are . . . pretty good. All competent, but only one truly stands out, and that is—you guessed it!—Dune.  
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: If Dune can get even one Oscar win, it absolutely has to be this one.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings because such a cliched, swirling CGI mess in its final climactic sequence, it feels like it got included here only because it was a blockbuster with some box office success. That doesn't mean the effects were as good as they could, or should, have been.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay) CODA, Screenplay by Siân Heder
Drive My Car, Screenplay by Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe
Dune, Screenplay by Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth
The Lost Daughter, Written by Maggie Gyllenhaal
The Power of the Dog, Written by Jane Campion WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Apparently The Power of the Dog and The Lost Daughter are neck and neck at the moment. I'm still officially predicting The Power of the Dog for the win, as its far higher number of overall nominations will likely help it in most categories.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Gold Derby's odds currently place Dune dead last in this category, which is truly astonishing to me. I have not read the book on which it's based, but I have known for years about the perceived challenges of adapting it successfully for a film (exhibit A: the notorious 1984 David Lynch film). This movie is doubly impressive for how superbly crafted it is.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Again, I have nothing against any of these films. I even love that the Japanese film got four nominations (International Feature being the only one it's likely to win). But, it also has an incredibly slow script that relies far too heavily, in my opinion, on a working knowledge of Chekhov's Uncle Vanya, which I don't have at all. And that made it a lot more difficult to lose myself into the world of its story.
Writing (Original Screenplay) Belfast, Written by Kenneth Branagh
Don't Look Up, Screenplay by Adam McKay; Story by Adam McKay & David Sirota
King Richard, Written by Zach Baylin
Licorice Pizza, Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
The Worst Person in the World, Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier WHO I THINK WILL WIN: This might just be the only Oscar, of three nominations, that Licorice Pizza actually wins—giving Paul Thomas Anderson his first Academy Award, after eleven nominations.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: These categories are always interesting, because since they have long been separated into "adapted" and "original," ten movies get nominated for writing every year, making it the closest analogue to the current state of Best Picture. Two of the ten movies here get the award, though, and sometimes only one of the two categories gets the most high profile nominees—or at least, the majority of the ones that would be nominated if "writing" were just limited to five. I can't judge The Worst Person in the World because I haven't seen it yet; it doesn't open locally until this Friday (annoying!). But, among the other four, I suppose my vote would actually go to Belfast, which is mercifully not overlong (98 minutes) and is very well constructed.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Here we go again. If there is any award Don't Look Up deserves the least, it's this one. Yes, even less than Best Picture. If that movie wins this award I'm going to jump off a cliff. So you all better fucking make sure that doesn't happen!
Best motion picture of the year Belfast
CODA
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Sometimes, a movie with tons of nominations comes away with nothing—like The Irishman at the 2020 Oscars. I don't think that will be the story this year, though, and it will be a genuine upset if The Power of the Dog doesn't win.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: The Power of the Dog is the only one of these ten films that I gave a solid A, so that should make my choice pretty obvious. (Incidentally, I gave two of the others an A-minus: CODA and West Side Story.)
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: All together now! "🎶 Fuck, fuck, fuck. Fuck Don't Look Up! 🎶"
(Nominations for documentary short, animated short, live action short, and sound were also announced, but I don't know enough about them to make any worthwhile observations.) The 94th Academy Awards telecast will air on ABC Sunday, March 27 at 4 p.m. Pacific Time. .

I'd Like to Thank the Academy

(And the nominees are . . .) It goes without saying but I'll say it again I guess, just for posterity, since many years from now it might not be as known just how often it was said by this point: This past year has been a weird one indeed, in virtually every context, and movies are no exception. There is little doubt that this year's crop of Acasdemy Award nominees would have looked much different had the year been "normal"—not least of which is the fact of an Academy Awards ceremony significantly delayed. Without a pandemic, the Academy Awards would already have happened a month and a half ago. Also without a pandemic, a whole slew of these movies would have actually been released last year, but instead were released this year, either moved completely to streaming or VOD platforms or released concurrently VOD and in very limited movie theaters, what few of them open only at limited capacity. I myself have not seen a film in a movie theater since February 2020. I took an unprecedented break from movie reviewing movies, for fully five months—seven months if you don't count the one movie I reviewed between February and September, Onward, which was relesed on Disney+ and was the first major release to become available that way. That said, an actually pretty typical cycle of Academy Awards hopefuls being released much later in the cycle still occurred, just, again, delayed: some still came out in the fall, but a bunch of them were released in the first couple months of 2021. This means that, with few exceptions, I still managed to review the vast majority of the films of note. The only glaring difference now is the absence of blockbusters, which were the only films that made real money at the box office anymore even before the pandemic, and those rarely became Oscar contenders anyway. Except maybe in the Visual Effects category—and, honestly, I would very much support adding a Best Stunts category as a means of bringing in more popular films. That's for future years, though. 2020 still set most of the huge blockbuster and franchise movies aside, making way for a lot of smaller but excellent movies that might not have gotten the same attention otherwise. Some of the multiple nominees announced this morning probably still qualify as such movies, most notably Promising Young Woman (5 nominations), probably Sound of Metal (6 nominations) and even the foreign film (2 nominations, including a rare one in the Best Director category). Honestly, this crop of nominations is maybe the most satisfying I have seen in many years; I can find no egregious omissions. I would have loved to see some love for Never Rarely Sometimes Always, the second-best film of 2020, but its absence here is hardly surprising, given how small and sad it is. And although several of the nominees are about social justice in many forms, no one right now is interested in anything dispiriting—and this is possibly the most diverse slate of nominations there has ever been. So, let's get started.
Actor in a Leading Role Riz Ahmed, The Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Here we start right off with the biggest lock of them all: if Chadwick Boseman does not win this award, it will have to mean we have entered another dimension, maybe one in which he is still alive.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: If Chadwick Boseman had not died tragically last year, I would likely say this is a toss-up between Riz Ahmed and Anthony Hopkins, both of whom were excellent in these movies—and, without Chadwick Boseman, Hopkins almost certainly would win this one. But, I cannot begrudge a well-deserved posthumous award for Boseman, who was also very good in this part, better even than the movie itself was.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Gary Oldman. He is a great actor but he is far from the best thing about the otherwise excellent Mank. Not that we have anything to worry about here anyway. Oldman wouldn't win this award even in another dimension.
Actress in a Leading Role Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman WHO I THINK WILL WIN: The odds here have long been on Carey Mulligan.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Honestly this is a tough call. I have long thought Carey Mulligan was an underrated talent; maybe I would still choose her here.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Vanessa Kirby was very good in Pieces of a Woman, but honestly, only especially so in that tour de force opening half-hour birth sequence. In the rest of the movie she's kind of just fine.
Actor in a Supporting Role Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami...
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I think Daniel Kaluuya has the edge here.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Honestly, I was more impressed with LaKeith Stanfield's performance in Judas and the Black Messiah—although both of them were great. There's been some talk of so-called "category fraud" here, since both Kaluuya and Stanfield are the co-leads of that movie, but we all know neither would have stood a chance against Chadwick Boseman in the Best Actor category. I did just realize that, in all likelihood, this year both Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor will be won by Black men. Has that ever happened in the same year before?
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I think Sacha Baron Cohen is a very good actor. His role as Borat really does not belong alongside the others listed here.
Actress in a Supporting Role Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Apparently, right now Yuh-Jung Youn has the best odds, but this remains a very competetive category.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I would be delighted to see Yuh-Jung Youn win—Minari would absolutely not be the same, thoroughly wonderful film without her.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I know we all want to see Glenn Close win an Oscar . . . someday. But, by all accounts: not for Hillbilly Elegy, which has been so critically derided I never even bothered watching it.
Animated Feature Film Onward
Over the Moon
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul
Wolfwalkers WHO I THINK WILL WIN: This is a rare year in which I have only seen two of the animated features nominated. I still think Soul wil win.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I also think Soul . . . should win.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Honestly? Even though Onward is the only other animated feature I saw out of these five, and it was also made by Disney's Pixar Studios, the movie was absolutely nowhere near on par with the excellence typically associated with the studio. By Pixar standards, it feels like leftovers, or an afterthought. There is little particularly memorable about it, especially alongside the stupendous Soul—which I've already watched twice.
Cinematography Judas and the Black Messiah, Sean Bobbitt
Mank, Erik Messerschmidt
News of the World, Dariusz Wolski
Nomadland, Joshua James Richards
The Trial of the Chicago 7, Phedon Papamichael WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Even though Mank managed to garner 10 nominations, I think this will be a case where a movie that got a bunch of nominations wins only a few of them. But, this is likely to be one of those few, as the cinematography is a huge psrt of what makes the movie great.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I would also vote for Mank here.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: The Trial of the Chicago 7 is a fine movie, but it is less deserving of this award than any of the other nominees.
Production Design The Father
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
News of the World
Tenet WHO I THINK WILL WIN: This will either go to Ma Rainey's Black Bottom or Mank. Probably the latter.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I would also edge out with Mank here, just because Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, being an adaptation of a play, thus has far fewer sets to design.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I honestly don't know why either The Father (which is very good) or Tenet (which is fine) were even nominated in this category.
Costume Design Emma, Alexandra Byrne
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Ann Roth
Mank, Trish Summerville
Mulan, Bina Daigeler
Pinnocchio, Massimo Cantini Parrini WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Again it's a race between Ma Rainey's Black Bottom and Mank. I am rarely very accurate in Oscar predictions, but I'm going to go ahead and say Ma Rainey will win out in this one.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I have to admit that in this category, the aforementioned two flms are the only two of these five that I've even seen. What the hell is this new Pinocchio, anyway? A Guillermo del Toro film? How have I not even heard of it? Weird. Anyway, Emma might have a better shot if it had more nominations in other categories, but . . . it doesn't.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I never saw Mulan either, and its costumes may even be great, but it's pretty well known now that the film, and its star, are problematic enough that there's not much reason to lavish it with Academy Awards.
Directing Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
David Fincher, Mank
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I really think this is going to Chloé Zhao.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: And, if there is any sense and justice across the Academy this year, they will do another Director/Picture split and give Best Director to Zhao and Best Picture to Minari.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Another Round included here was one of the few genuine surprises among the nominees. And it's a fine film, but every other nominee here is more deserving.
Documentary Feature Collective, Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana
Crip Camp, Nicole Newnham, Jim LeBrecht and Sara Bolder
The Mole Agent, Maite Alberdi and Marcela Santibáñez
My Octopus Teacher, Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster
Time, Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino and Kellen Quinn WHO I THINK WILL WIN: This is another tough call, especially this year when not a lot of documentary features generated much in the way of lasting buzz. But, it still seems that Time has the edge.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Which is as it should be! This may be the only Academy Award nomination it got, but I felt very strongly that Time, a truly extraordinary film that really transcends the documentary genre, was the best film of 2020.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: The only other movie I saw here was Crip Camp, and it was also very good, and showcased the extremely underrepresented disabled community and their civil rights history. I'd hardly call that one undeserving; I just think Time is a better movie. Having not seen the other three, I can't really comment here otherwise.
Film Editing The Father, Yorgos Lamprinos
Nomadland, Chloé Zhao
Promising Young Woman, Frédéric Thoraval
Sound of Metal, Mikkel E. G. Nielsen
The Trial of the Chicago 7, Alan Baumgarten WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Given its general frontrunner status on multiple levels, this will probably go to Nomadland.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I was so impressed with the editing in Sound of Metal, especially the sound editing but that would mean nothing without great editing otherwise, I would love to see that one win this.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Again: The Trial of the Chicago 7, which is a fine movie, but its many Oscar nominations are kind of tipping it over into "overrated" territory.
Makeup and Hairstyling Emma
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I think, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, maybe? It does have impressive makeup work, especially on Viola Davis.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I'm a little mystified as to why the hell Pinocchio was nominated in this category but not Promising Young Woman, whose makeup artists transformed Carey Mulligan into many impressive incarnations never seen in any of her other movies. She looks like a completely different person. Absent that film as an option here, even I'll have to go with Ma Rainey.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Based on the critical reception, Hillbilly Elegy is probably best left a movie not called an "Oscar winner." It has no real chance here anyway.
Music (Original Score) Da 5 Bloods, Terence Blanchard
Mank, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
Minari, Emile Mosseri
News of the World, James Newton Howard
Soul, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Soul.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Soul. No other movie turned my head the way this one did, with its incredible original score. I might watch it a third time just to hear Trent Reznor's delightfully ethereal music again.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Anything that is not Soul.
Music (Original Song) "Fight for you," from Judas and the Black Messiah, Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas
"Hear My Voice," from The Trial of the Chicago 7, Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite
"Husavik," from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson
"Io Sì (Seen)," from The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se), Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini
"Speak Now," from One Night in Miami..., Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I mean . . . who the hell knows?
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Of these nominees, the only song I had heard before I was literally writing this was "Husavik" from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, a surprisingly good song from a surprisingly fun movie. Having just checked out all of the other nominees, I think I actually like "Fight for You" from Judas and the Black Messiah best. Granted, there is a case to be made for keeping Best Song nominees limited to songs that are somehow actually tied into the film's actual narrative, and Leslie Odom Jr. both acts and sings in One Night in Miami... But, well, I still like "Fight for You" best.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: This is sort of unfair, but, to be perfectly honest, I like "Speak Now" the least of these songs.
Sound Greyhound
Mank
News of the World
Soul
Sound of Metal WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Sound of Metal, even with its great script and great acting, would truly not be the incredible film it is without its sound editing, which turns it into an immersive experience as the main character starts to lose his hearing. I have never been so focused on this category before—even as it becomes the first year in which the Academy combines Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. I think voters would agree with me, though—so much so that, were these still two different categories, Sound of Metal would justifiably win both of them.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: How many times do I have to say "Sound of Metal"? Sheesh!
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I'm sure the sound in both Mank and News of the World is very good, but even Greyhound, a merely decent film, is more impressive on that front. That said, if Sound of Metal did not exist, I would want Soul to win this, even though it never would.
Visual Effects Love and Monsters
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan
Tenet WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Given that Tenet is the single bona fide blockbuster actually released this past year, I think it stands to reason that movie will win this.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Tenet, I guess? It's the only one of these movies I have even seen—although The Midnight Sky has been on my list for some time, which means it now needs to move up on my priority list; it's easily accessible on Prime Video, after all. I had never even heard of Love and Monsters, but I guess I'll have to look into that too.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: The One and Only Ivan is a CGI talking animal movie about a gorilla named Ivan, available on Disney+. I gave it a look a few weeks back, just because I learned it was based on a gorilla who had lived in Tacoma (although I don't think the movie actually specifies that). In the opening shot, Ivan the gorilla speaks right into the camera, and I found it so instantly cornball-stupid that I turned it off in a matter of seconds. No thanks!
Writing (Adapted Screenplay) Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan, Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Nina Pedrad
The Father, Screenplay by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
Nomadland, Written for the screen by Chloé Zhao
One Night in Miami..., Screenplay by Kemp Powers
The White Tiger, Written for the screen by Ramin Bahrani WHO I THINK WILL WIN: This one has to be Nomadland, its adaptation of a nonfiction book, with several real people playing barely fictionalized versions of themselves, quite the unique accomplishment.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: See above.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: The inclusion of Borat here is truly a mystery, given how much of the film was improvised. What the hell is it "adapted" from, anyway? The original script itself? I don't get it. Okay, apparently "the Academy considers all sequels to be adaptations." Huh? Okay, whatever.
Writing (Original Screenplay) Judas and the Black Messiah, Screenplay by Will Berson & Shaka King; Story by Will Berson & Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas
Minari, Written by Lee Isaac Chung
Promising Young Woman, Written by Emerald Fennell
Sound of Metal, Screenplay by Darius Marder & Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance
The Trial of the Chicago 7, Written by Aaron Sorkin WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I think there's a fair chance this is the one Oscar The Trial of the Chicago 7 will actually win.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Absolutely: Minari. It's a uniquely American yet unparalleled story, written beautifully.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I'd rather any of the others here win over The Trial of the Chicago 7, but that's okay, I guess I can still live with it winning.
Best motion picture of the year The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7 WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Nomadland has the slight edge here, but . . .
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: as I stated earlier, what I would love to see here is Nomadland winning for Best Director and Minari for Best Picture. I honestly think that would be the best and fairest outcome.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I'm inclined to focus on two movies that are undeserving of this particular award: not just The Trial of the Chicago 7, but certainly Promising Young Woman, which has a lot of great things about it but also suffers from both plot and tonal inconsistencies. I'd rank The Father third from the bottom here, even though it also has a lot going for it. But, if we still allowed only five nominees in this category, those are likely the three that would have been edged out. Or at least they should be; I suppose a five-film set would probably have included The Trial of the Chicago 7 and edged out Sound of Metal, which would have been a travesty.
(Nominations for international feature, documentary short, animated short, and live action short were also announced, but I don't know enough about them to make any worthwhile observations.) The 93rd Academy Awards telecast will air on ABC Sunday, April 25 at 5 p.m. Pacific Time.

I'd Like to Thank the Academy

(And the nominees are...) Okay, let's just get this out of the way: Joker leads the pack with 11 nominations, which basically makes one of the year's biggest piles of garbage a huge Oscar front-runner. Should I finally lose all faith in humanity? Nah, maybe not. I mean, in Joker's defense, it's a gorgeously shot, beautifully scored, impeccably acted pile of garbage. That said, three other movies came quite close to tying that number, with ten nominations each: The Irishman, 1917, and Once Upon a Time ... In Hollywood. Each of the are more deserving of every award than Joker, though by varying margins. But, that's not a very high bar either. Academy voters sure do know how to set that bar low. Anyway, let's get on with it!
Actor in a Leading Role Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time ...In Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Ugh. This feels like a bad omen, starting with the first award almost guaranteed to go to Joker. Adam Driver was the front runner for some time, but at the moment Joaquin Phoenix seems all but guaranteed to win.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: You know what? I'm not sure I made this decision until this very moment. This is the first time Antonio Banderas has ever been nominated, amazingly, and he actually did Oscar-worthy work in Pain and Glory. I'd be happy to see Adam Driver win too, but if I were voting, and I were voting today, my vote would go to Antonio Banderas.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I really hate that I am saying this, because I prefer to say Joker doesn't deserve any Oscars for any reason, but even though I enjoyed The Two Popes and Jonathan Pryce is great, I'd still say he's the least deserving out of this group.
Actress in a Leading Role Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renée Zellweger, Judy WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Renée Zellweger has all but won this award already, judging by the predictions of everyone and their mother for the past four months. Given that she already has an Oscar, and Judy was merely good and not great, I would be delighted if an upset happened and any of the other women in this category won.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: To be fair, I actually think Zellweger winning would be absolutely fair. Upon further reflection, though, I think I vote for Saoirse Ronan, who has been a stunning performer since as far back as Atonement in 2007—four nominations ago!
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I honestly don't think either Cynthia Erivo or Scarlett Johansson deserve this award, at least not for these roles. Even though they are both fantastic actors, and Erivo is in the truly unfortunate position of being the "token black" among the acting nominees this year. Or even more accurately, "token nonwhite." I would have preferred to see Awkwafina nominated for The Farewell, a movie which inexplicably got no nominations at all.
Actor in a Supporting Role Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time ...In Hollywood WHO I THINK WILL WIN: If Brad Pitt does not win this award, it will be the biggest Oscar upset of the night.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I'm pulling for Tom Hanks, here with his first Oscar nomination in nineteen years, which is extraordinary. But, this is the sole nomination given to A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, which does not bode well for it.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Al Pacino in The Irishman? Come on. That movie is decent but wildly overrated, and Al Pacino's is the most blustery performance in it.
Actress in a Supporting Role Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell WHO I THINK WILL WIN: If all the prognosticators are to be believed, Laura Dern is a lock. Which honestly makes little sense to me; she's a great actor but she's hardly doing her best work in this particular part.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Among this group, I think perhaps Margot Robbie gave the best—and certainly the most nuanced—performance.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I love Kathy Bates. And I haven't even seen Richard Jewell. But, I know enough about it to know this nomination—the only one given to this film—was not necessary, nor did Bates need it.
Cinematography The Irishman, Rodrigo Prieto
Joker, Lawrence Sher
The Lighthouse, Jarin Blaschke
1917, Roger Deakins
Once Upon a Time ...In Hollywood, Robert Richardson WHO I THINK WILL WIN: This one seems a lock for 1917, although I can also see Once Upon a Time ...In Hollywood pulling through here.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: 1917 is indeed the obvious choice; the camera work in that movie is legitimately amazing.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I'm sorry, but the cinematography in The Irishman was just nothing special. Even in The Joker, the cinematography was one of the few things actually worthy of high compliment.
Production Design The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
1917
Once Upon a Time ...In Hollywood
Parasite WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I would bet money that Once Upon a Time ...In Hollywood will win this one. The cinematography actually is great, plus Hollywood loves movies about itself, especially nostalgic ones.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: It's too well integrated to be noticeable, but the production design iin 1917 is actually by far the most impressive thing about it, once you really think on it.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Jojo Rabbit? Really? That movie will not win this award, nor should it.
Costume Design The Irishman, Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson
Jojo Rabbit, Mayes C. Rubeo
Joker, Mark Bridges
Little Women, Jacqueline Durran
Once Upon a Time ...In Hollywood, Arianne Phillips WHO I THINK WILL WIN: This category is often used to throw a bone to period films, so I'm betting on Little Women.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Little Women also actually deserves it.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: The only reason Joker even got this nomination is because an inexplicably huge number of people are jizzing themselves over that garbage dump of a movie. There are some elements that really are impressive about it, which makes it even more annoying, but this is absolutely not one of them. Are we supposed to cheer because the guy was dressed in a red and orange suit?
Directing Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Sam Mendes, 1917
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time ...In Hollywood
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite WHO I THINK WILL WIN: This one is a tough call. The real answer is "I have no idea." Gun to my head, I would say Sam Mendes for 1917. If that happens, I'll bet anything this will be yet another year in which Best Director and Best Picture are split—and Joker wins Best Picture. I'll just have to keep my barf bucket handy.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Sam Mendes, actually! I would also be happy with Bong Joon Ho, although his movie was wildly over-hyped and that did it no favors. With 1917, though, I was duly impressed even with that movie's own large amount of critical praise.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Listen, everyone. The Irishman just isn't the "great film" cinephiles seem to think it is.
Film Editing Ford v. Ferrari, Michael McCusker and Andew Buckland
The Irishman, Thelma Schoonmaker
Jojo Rabbit, Tom Eagles
Joker, Jeff Groth
Parasite, Yang Jinmo WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Given the subject matter and how incredibly well put-together its racing sequences are, I'm actually going to predict that this will be the only Oscar Ford v. Ferrari wins.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I'd be happy with Ford v. Ferrari, but thanks to its intricate plotting, Parasite is arguably more deserving.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Again with The Irishman! I get that its massive length is part of the point; its ending would not be as effective without all the time spent on what leads up to it. The same effect could still have been achieved by cutting this movie down to three hours. Why would we give the editing award to the guy who refused to edit?
Makeup and Hairstyling Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
1917 WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I can pretty easily see Joker winning this one, just because a lot of times Academy voters like to be on the nose.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I'm going with Bombshell on this one, its actors—particularly Charlize Theron—were so impressively transformed.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Joker can shove a bundle of makeup brushes right up its own ass.
Music (Original Score) Joker, Hildur Guðnadóttir
Little Women, Alexandre Desplat
Marriage Story, Randy Newman
1917, Thomas Newman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, John Williams WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I really can't answer this one with any authority whatsoever either, but I'm still going to guess 1917.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: You know what? I don't really give a shit.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Well, except that of course I really don't want Joker to win this one either.
Music (Original Song) "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away," from Toy Story 4, Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again," from Rocket Man, Music by Elton John, Lyric by Bernie Taupin
"I'm Standing With You," from Breakthrougj, Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
"Into the Unknown," from Frozen II, Music and Lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
"Stand Up," from Harriet, Music and Lyric by Joshuah Brian Campbell and Cynthia Erivo WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I think this will be Rocketman's one Oscar win. (It's also its one nomination.)
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: If there were any justice in the world—and as we all know, particularly in the world of the Acadeny, there often is not—then Cynthia Erivo, while not deserving of the acting award in this case, would at least be rewarded for her truly incredible voice.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: The trailer alone revealed Breakthrough to be a bunch of religious claptrap best avoided. It will be cool to see This Is Us's Chrissy Metz sing a song at the Academy Awards, but for this movie, that should be enough of an award.
Visual Effects Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker WHO I THINK WILL WIN: It won't be at all justified, but I think this will go to Avengers: Endgame, not because it actually has the best effects, but because it was a massive box office smash, and it's the only award it's even eligible for. And voters will likely vote for the movie with the most visual effects, as opposed to the best.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: This is also the only award nomination for The Lion King—which did not even get the widely expected Original Song nod—but, that's still the movie that deserves the win. None of the other movies come even close to how visually amazing this film is.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Avengers: Endgame is only here as a consolation prize in this year's popularity contest, and because of how noisy and packed with effects it is. That hardly makes it the best.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay) The Irishman, Screenplay by Steven Zaillian
Jojo Rabbit, Screenplay by Taika Waititi
Joker, Written by Todd Phillips & Scott Silveri
Little Women, Written for the screen by Greta Gerwig
The Two Popes, Written by Anthony McCarten WHO I THINK WILL WIN: The current odds are apparently the same for both The Irishman and Little Women as the front runner in this category. I don't think The Irishman will actually win many of the 10 awards for it was nominated, but I think it likely has the edge here. Unfortunately, Little Women just isn't getting the respect it deserves, so I don't even trust it being regarded as a front runner. But, I'd love to be proven wrong.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Honestly, I'm realizing at this very moment that among these five films, I think The Two Popes actually has the best-written dialogue.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Joker is less deserving of this award in particular than any of those it was nominated for. Did a bunch of people's hands slip and nominate this film by accident? Its script is by far Joker's biggest problem—big enough to make the movie irredeemable. A well-shot and well-acted piece of shit is still a piece of shit. Watching Joker is the metaphorical equivalent of looking at a turd in HD.
Writing (Original Screenplay) Knives Out, Written by Rian Johnson
Marriage Story, Written by Noah Baumbach
1917, Written by Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns
Once Upon a Time ...In Hollywood, Written by Quentin Tarantino
Parasite, Screenplay by Bong Joon Ho, Han Jin Won; Story by Bong Joon Ho WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Once Upon a Time ...In Hollywood, even though it doesn't deserve it. But, this is where Tarantino has gotten his previous two Oscar wins as well as half his ttotal Oscar nominations, and this is by far his most-nominated film to date. If he wins any Oscar this year—and he is likely to win multiple—then it will be this one.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: It'll never happen, but I would be ecstatic if Knives Out won this award. I'd also be really happy with Parasite.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Ironically, I actually think Once Upon a Time ...In Hollywood is the least deserving of these five films. People love that movie so much they somehow overlook the many flaws in its script.
Animated Feature Film How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4 WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Well, this is new. I've only seen one of these films! I still think Pixar will prevail and Toy Story 4 will win.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I really couldn't say.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I couldn't really say here either, although Missing Link looked pretty dumb.
International Feature Corpus Christi, Directed by Jan Komasa (Poland)
Honeyland, Directed by Ljubo Stefanov and Tamara Kotevksa (North Macedonia)
Le Misérables, Directed by Ladj Ly (France)
Pain and Glory, Directed by Pedro Almodóvar (Spain)
Parasite, Directed by Bong Joon Ho (South Korea) WHO I THINK WILL WIN: You'd have to be a corpse not to know that Parasite will win this award.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Honeyland was the best movie I saw all year, but I don't see the sense in awarding it for both the categories in which it was nominated. Here, I would also go for Parasite. Bong Joon Ho deserves a win.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I can't answer this for this category either, as I only saw three of the films, and all three of them were either very good or phenomenal.
Documentary Feature American Factory, Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert and Jeff Reichert
The Cave, Feras Fayyad, Kirstine Barfod and Sigrid Dyekjær
The Edge of Democracy, Petra Costa, Joanna Natasegara, Shane Boris and Tiago Pavan
For Sama, Waad al-Kateab and Edward Watts
Honeyland, Ljubo Stefanov, Tamara Kotevska and Atanas Georgiev WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I haven't seen it (and I really should; it's now streaming on Netflix), but I still know the buzz is all about American Factory, and by a stunningly wide margin.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: If Academy voters did their jobs (and I am not an Academy member, so I have more of an excuse for not having seen quite all of these movies!), they would watch every screener available to them—and if they had any sense, they would vote for Honeyland.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Any movie that is not Honeyland. In this case I don't care that I haven't seen any of the other nominees! In fact I usually omit this category for this very reason, but with Honeyland being my favorite movie of the year, I had to include it.
Best motion picture of the year Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time ...In Hollywood
Parasite WHO I THINK WILL WIN: All bets appear to be on Once Upon a Time ...In Hollywood, an I see no reason not to make that my expectation as well. As long as Joker doesn't win, I'll be satisfied—although the love for that movie is so irritating to me, I can still see a surprise win for it here. That's right, every voter is just thinking, What will annoy Matthew the most?
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Well, this is strange. Only two of these movies were on my top 10 for the year (Little Women and Ford v. Ferrari), so I guess I should choose one of those, huh? Except! I didn't even get a chance to see 1917 until last week, after I had written up my top 10—and it would have been on it had it been given the chance. So, 1917 is my choice.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Joker. Joker. JOKER. Fuuuuck Joker! How many times do I have to say it? Actually for a while there I thought I would be reserving this attitude for Jojo Rabbit, which is overrated and problematic in its own unique ways, and it looked like it might ride a wave similar to last year's Green Book. So much for that! I've got so much hate for Joker that I've hardly got time to resent Jojo Rabbit, which now seems unlikely to win any of these awards anyway. What tragic irony that I would rather see it win anything than Joker. That wrongminded movie made by a troupe of dipshits will now dominate this year's Oscar conversation, and I can't wait for that part to be over. Or at least, to revel in some of its inevitable defeats; it won't possibly win them all, and I'll take solace in that much, I guess.
(Nominations for documentary short, animated short, live action short, sound editing, and sound mixing were also announced, but I don't know enough about them to make any worthwhile observations.) The 92nd Academy Awards telecast will air on ABC Sunday, February 9 at 5 p.m. Pacific Time.

I'd Like to Thank the Academy

(And the nominees are . . .) This year, ten nominations each for Roma and The Favourite, both leading the pack -- I can live with that. Eight nominations for Vice gets something more akin to "whatever" from me, but at least the Academy doesn't seem to be too far out of line with my thinking generally this year. Well, except for one particularly notable snub: no nominations whatsoever for Eighth Grade, which just happens actually to be the best film of 2018. This is all subjective, of course, and we're all just passing time with this crap. But I've been doing it for years and years, and I'll never stop! Also, if a superhero movie must be the first ever to be nominated for Best Picture, Black Panther is the one to do it. It won't win and it doesn't deserve to, but it sure as shit deserves a nomination; I was way of the possibility that it wouldn't. There's actually a surprising number of nominees I haven't seen this year. A couple I've never even heard of. As usual of course I have seen the vast majority, so let's get into it.
Actor in a Leading Role Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Many months ago, I would not have said this was a tough one -- it's toucher now, only because Bradley Cooper's momentum has waned. And this year, the SAG Awards have yet to happen, so making this prediction today is a lot trickier than it will be a week from now. That said, considering the competition, if pressed, I would still predict Bradley Cooper. If not him, at the moment, it looks like it's close to a toss-up between him and Christian Bale.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: My vote since the moment I saw A Star Is Born has never wavered from Bradley Cooper, whose transformation is astonishing -- honestly, even more so than Christian Bale's, even though it's not as flashy and attention-getting.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: How have I not even heard of At Eternity's Gate, let alone seen it? Perhaps it's unfair to declare a performance I have not even seen should not win, but this is a movie that has not in any way been in the national conversation. It simply makes the least sense for that one to win.
Actress in a Leading Role Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I feel like this is the one race that nearly every year has the greatest competition, packed with great performances. Many people seem to think Glenn Close will win, largely because she has more nominations without a win than any other actor alive today, but it seems telling to me that The Wife has no other nominations. So this really is a tough one. I'm leaning toward Melissa McCarthy, but I'm probably wrong.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: And this may be sheer bias on my part -- because I actually feel Melissa McCarthy deserves the win.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I love Lady Gaga, but her performance in A Star Is Born was fine -- not great. She should get the Oscar for Best Song.
Actor in a Supporting Role Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Given the sheer number of nominations for Vice, the unlikelihood of all others in this category, and his legitimately incredible performance as George W. Bush, I think Sam Rockwell has the edge here.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Upon further reflection, among these five, I think Sam Rockwell gets my vote as well.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I actively avoided seeing Green Book, as its production has been uncomfortably problematic in far too many ways: its cliched white perspective without bothering to get the story from the family of the black man it was based on; its writer's own bigoted comments (directly aligning himself with Donald Trump, no less); its portrayal of a gay man, just to name a few. Mahershala Ali is a great actor who has done great work -- he deservedly won an Oscar for Moonlight only two years ago -- but even without having seen this movie, I feel I know enough to conclude this is not a particular film that needs to be rewarded.
Actress in a Supporting Role Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I have no idea! I'd want to give The Favourite the edge, except that it has two nominees in this category, which could split the vote. This is now Amy Adams's sixth nomination with no win, which could give it to her.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I'm leaning toward Rachel Weisz here, but . . .
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: . . . I'd be fine with anyone in this category winning, really. Marina de Tavira's nomination was a genuine surprise; I'm not sure anyone was predicting acting nominations for Roma besides Yalitza Aparicio as the lead. And really, all five of these women are great. That said -- well, Emma Stone did win for La La Land only two years ago. She doesn't need to win for this. (Rachel Weisz also already has an Oscar, but it's been longer since she last won, in 2006, for The Constant Gardener.)
Animated Feature Film Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I feel like this is a close call between Isle of Dogs and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. If critical response has any sway at all, it'll likely go to the latter.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Much as I did genuinely love Incredibles 2, for once I am not rooting for the Pixar film. Spider-Man is where it's at -- and I say this as someone who avoids superhero movies as a rule! This one is exceptional in far more ways than any of the others, though: the story, the animation, the themes, everything.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I don't know, Mirai, I guess? This answer is completely unfair since it's the one nominee I did not see. But, I hate anime. And Spider-Man deserves it, god damn it!
Cinematography Cold War, Łukasz Żal
The Favourite, Robbie Ryan
Never Look Away, Caleb Deschanel
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
A Star Is Born, Matthew Libatique WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I'll bet my head on a spike that Roma will win this award.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Roma for the win! Not enough people saw this movie, but probably enough members of the Academy did. And, true to form for Alfonso Cuarón movies, the cinematography is jaw-dropping.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I truly loved virtually everything else about The Favourite, but the one thing I disliked about it was its fishbowl-lens cinematography, which I found persistently distracting. I could only get past it after seeing it three times. Even though I am clearly in the minority on this point, cinematography would be the single award I think that movie does not deserve.
Production Design Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma WHO I THINK WILL WIN: This is always a hard one to predict. Maybe The Favourite will get this one, since the production design detail of Roma -- which is itself intricate and extensive -- gets a little lost in the black and white cinematography. And The Favourite was shot in opulent, vast palaces that really added to the tone of the story.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I think I just convinced myself The Favourite should win.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Mary Poppins Returns was fun, but ... come on.
Costume Design The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Mary Zophres
Black Panther, Ruth Carter
The Favourite, Sandy Powell
Mary Poppins Returns, Sandy Powell
Mary, Queen of Scots, Alexandra Byrne WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I think I'm going to declare The Favourite as having the edge here as well. It's possible Mary, Queen of Scots actually deserves it, but only two nominations, that movie isn't likely to win anything.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I actually think Black Panther also has a legitimately decent chance in this category, and you know what? If Black Panther wins any Oscar at all, it should be for its intricately African-inspired costume designs.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Seeing three nominations for The Ballad of Buster Scruggs is a little jarring; I did not expect it to get any, in spite of knowing it did get a very limited theatrical release just to qualify -- thereafter, though, it seemed merely to be a Netflix original streaming movie. Who ever expects Oscar nominations for such things? The times, they are a-changin'. It doesn't deserve this award, regardless. I mean, the cowboy outfits are nice and all, but they're still just cowboy outfits.
Directing Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Yargos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Adam McKay, Vice WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Conventional wisdom already says this will be another year with a split between Best Director and Best Picture, and in this category more than any other, Alfonso Cuarón is the one to beat. I was surprised to see a second foreign language film in this category (Cold War), but for that one, the nomination itself is the award.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Honestly? For every film here except for Roma, I feel that had they not been nominated for Best Director, that would have been fair. Only a Roma exclusion would have been a stunning snub. Roma is the only truly deserving winner here.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I'm going with Adam McKay and Vice. I'm most surprised by his even being included here -- what is with the love for that movie, anyway? It's all right, but also fails to justify its own existence beyond acting parlor tricks. Christian Bale as Dick Cheney is impressive, and also it's not fun to watch the story of Dick Cheney.
Film Editing BlacKkKlansman, Barry Alexander Brown
Bohemian Rhapsody, John Ottman
The Favourite, Yargos Lanthimos
Green Book, Patrick J. Don Vito
Vice, Hank Corwin WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Hey, what! Roma isn't even nominated here. That's odd. I do think movies being in any way polarizing hurts its chances, even for a lower-tier award like Editing. And you know which is the only one of these films that is not notably polarizing in any way? The Favourite.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: The Favourite also gets my vote.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Green Book. Don't give that whitewashing movie any awards!
Foreign Film Capernaum, Lebanon
Cold War, Poland
Never Look Away, Germany
Roma, Mexico
Shoplifters, Japan WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I am actually including this category for the first time in roughly a decade this year, because for once I have actually seen most of them! Well, two out of three. I haven't even had a chance to see Capernaum yet, even though it's opening locally soon; also, what the hell is Never Look Away? Hmm, apparently a three-hour German romance about a tortured soul. Whatever, Roma is winning this award. Unless . . .
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: What are the odds that Roma wins both Best Picture and Best Foreign Film? Pretty much zilch, I would think -- and, in the absence of Eighth Grade, among the nominees, Roma truly deserves to win Best Picture. And if that should happen? Cold War should win Best Foreign Language Film. It actually is very good.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Honestly I could not see what the big deal was with Shoplifters. It was fine, but hardly Oscar-worthy.
Makeup and Hairstyling Border
Mary, Queen of Scots
Vice WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Border? What the hell is that? -- oh, right, I nearly forgot: this actually did play locally and I never went to see it. Its main characters are borderline disfigured, hence the makeup nomination. It was a very small, Swedish movie that got almost no attention outside critic circles. Therefore, given the massive transformations of both Christian Bale and Sam Rockwell, Vice is sure to win this one.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Much as I hesitate to throw any awards at Vice, it probably does deserve this one. Maybe Border does too, but I skipped that one.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Mary, Queen of Scots seems too on the nose for this award these days, to be honest. Both the other nominees clearly deserve it more.
Music (Original Score) Black Panther, Ludwig Goransson
BlacKkKlansman, Terence Blanchard
If Beale Street Could Talk, Nicholas Britell
Isle of Dogs, Alexandre Desplat
Mary Poppins Returns, Marc Shaiman WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I bet anything this one will go to Black Panther, which is packed with nuanced, meaningful details in all sorts of its production elements -- not least of which is its score.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Black Panther should get it. I'd be fine with If Beale Street Could Talk winning, but there is no question Black Panther had the greater reach, and deservedly so.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I won't go so far as to say any of these movies is patently undeserving, but I will say Mary Poppins Returns is least likely to get it, and that's fine.
Music (Original Song) "All the Stars," from Black Panther, Music by Mark Spears, Kendrick Lamar Duckworth and Anthony Tiffith; Lyric by Kendrick Lamar Duckworth, Anthony Tiffith and Solana Rowe
"I'll Fight," from RBG, Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
"The Place Where Lost Things Go," from Mary Poppins Returns, Music by Marc Shaiman; Lyric by Scott Wittman and Marc Shaiman
"Shallow," from A Star Is Born, Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando and Andrew Wyatt
"When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings," from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Music and Lyric by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch WHO I THINK WILL WIN: If "Shallow" from A Star Is Born does not win this award, I will saw off my left arm.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Given its context in a great movie with great music about musicians, "Shallow" also deserves to win this.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: So I went online to refresh my memory of "What a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings," and . . . no.
Visual Effects Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story WHO I THINK WILL WIN: This one's hard. First Man is the only one of these movies for which I gave a solid A grade to its special effects, but that movie has so few nominations, who knows? And most of the others were much bigger blockbusters and therefore seen by many more people. I'm going to call this one for Avengers: Infinity War, which, at the very least, had far better effects than the dismal Avengers: Age of Ultron.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: First Man is without question the most impressive movie among these, in terms of its visual effects.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Ready Player One can fuck right off with its visual effects that were average at best. Why is it even nominated? Just having countless effects shots should not be considered a qualification!
Writing (Adapted Screenplay) The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
BlacKkKlansman, Written by Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Screenplay by Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk, Written for the screen by Barry Jenkins
A Star Is Born, Screenplay by Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters WHO I THINK WILL WIN: This award often goes to movies with no chance of winning other awards. Does that narrow it down? By that metric, at least after disqualifying The Ballad of Buster Scruggs for its unusually brief theatrical run, I suppose the award will go to Can You Ever Forgive Me?
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I'm going for Can You Ever Forgive Me? here, but would also be perfectly happy with A Star Is Born, whose script spoke to me and made me feel seen in totally unexpected ways.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs's six chapters are far too all over the place to be deserving of this award.
Writing (Original Screenplay) The Favourite, Written by Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
First Reformed, Written by Paul Schrader
Green Book, Written by Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
Roma, Written Alfonso Cuarón
Vice, Written by Adam McKay WHO I THINK WILL WIN: This one comes down to Roma and The Favorite, and considering the belabored pacing of the former, I think the latter actually has the edge in this category.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Much as I really want to reward The Favourite here, upon further reflection, Roma may actually be the most deserving. Its script is far and away the most nuanced of these five.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Oh have I mentioned, "fuck Green Book"?
Best motion picture of the year Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice WHO I THINK WILL WIN: This is so hard to say, because a foreign film has never won this award before. I'll be happy to be wrong, but the alternative being A Star Is Born, I still think that's the most likely winner, and I'd be happy with that as well. It really spoke to me personally in pleasantly surprising ways.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: My #1 movie of the year (Eighth Grade) and my #2 movie (Blindspotting) both criminally received zero nominations -- but, my #3 movie was Roma, and that one received ten. Being forced to choose between these eight movies, Roma is the only choice to make here.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Hello, Green Book! That movie winning this year would be the most tone deaf thing the Academy has done since Crash won Best Picture over Brokeback Mountain in 2006. Lucky for everyone alive, there's no chance whatsoever that movie will win this award this year.

(Nominations for documentary feature, documentary short, animated short, live action short, sound editing, and sound mixing were also announced, but I don't know enough about them to make any worthwhile observations.) The 91st Academy Awards telecast will air on ABC Sunday, February 24 at 5 p.m. Pacific Time. .

I'd Like to Thank the Academy

(And the nominees are . . .) This is new: one of the movies I listed as among the worst five I saw all year (fifth-worst, to be exact), also happens to be the leader in this year's number of Academy Award nominations, at 13: The Shape of Water, also known (by me) as Elisa Fucks a Fish. Mind you, I have always conceded that I am in the minority on this one, a rare instance in which a widely critically acclaimed movie was one I just could not quite abide. The movie has many redeeming values; in my view, the fact that it features a woman who fucks a fish -- okay, "Amphibian Man" if you want to get technical; but is that better? -- negates them. Second-highest number of nominations goes to Dunkirk, most of them in technical categories, which is no surprise; third goes to the movie with the most surprising momentum on the awards circuit, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. The latter film is also suffering a backlash that is arguably half-deserved; I won't stand alongside those who insist it's an inexcusably bad movie, but I will agree that it is deeply imperfect, and though deniably entertaining, really does not deserve the awards it has been getting -- and it is likely to win at least two of the acting awards, if the SAG Awards were any indication. And they usually are, although certainly not as any guarantee: they have only matched all four acting Oscar winners six times, and far more often match three out of the four. So, for a multitude of reasons, this year's Academy Awards are unusually unpredictable -- which can only be good for it, making it more interesting and more fun.
Actor in a Leading Role Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. WHO I THINK WILL WIN: After winning countless critic circle awards, the Golden Globe, and the SAG Award, in this category, Gary Oldman is the one to beat, and this is easily the most predictable win in an otherwise unusually unpredictable year.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: This is a thorny one, this year in particular. Gary Oldman's evidently shady place in the #MeToo movement makes me weary of advocating for him. I think the question of separating the artist from his art is a worthy one, but maybe not quite as much as usual this year. The thing is, among these nominees -- all of them great -- Gary Oldman's is the strongest performance. But if I were a voting member, I'd probably cast my vote for Daniel Kaluuya.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: This year, that would be Denzel Washington. No disrespect to him as an undeniably great actor, but nothing about Roman J. Israel, Esq., which was good but not great, justifies an Academy Award.
Actress in a Leading Role Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water aka Elisa Fucks a Fish
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post WHO I THINK WILL WIN: The big question for me here will be whether the surprising momentum for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri extends to the vast array of Academy Voters. It might not, but in all likelihood, it will. Just like Gary Oldman, after winning both the Golden Globe and the SAG Award (and there is massive crossover between Screen Actors Guild and Academy voters, making the acting awards the easiest to predict), the edge still goes to Frances McDormand. It's almost too bad -- her one win thus far, for Fargo, was well deserved; I'm not convinced this one would be, particularly compared to her many other far stronger roles.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: She doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell, but Margo Robbie keeps getting nominated and then not winning, and her performance is nothing short of amazing in I, Tonya.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I'm tempted to say Frances McDormand here, but even she deserves it more, at this point in time, than Meryl Streep. Streep is indeed great in The Post, and I am on board with it garnering her yet another increase in her record number of nominations. But, come on. The woman has three Oscars already -- spread the wealth around a little. The Post would have to have been a far better film (even though it is good) to justify giving her the award.
Actor in a Supporting Role Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water aka Elisa Fucks a Fish
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Until very recently, Willem Dafoe was the widely accepted frontrunner here. Then he lost the Golden Globe to Sam Rockwell, and it was like, well -- the Golden Globes are sort of the Fake Awards, with a voting block of less than 100, none of them crossing over with either SAG-AFTRA or the Academy. So there was no reason to think of it as a predictor of the SAG Award winner -- and then, Sam Rockwell won that one too. I would not say his chances are quite as etched in stone as those of Gary Oldman or Frances McDormand, but Sam Rockwell would still be in the lead here.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Again with the "not a snowball's chance in hell," after careful consideration, I have decided Christopher Plummer deserves this award. What he managed, in all of one week's worth of reshoots after All the Money in the World rightfully dumped Kevin Spacey, is nothing short of astonishing. And for some reason, in spite of the massive press the reshoots got, not very many people went to see this movie. And they should have.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I liked The Florida Project a lot, but didn't quite see Willem Dafoe's performance as the career highlight so many others seemed to. Even Sam Rockwell, a great actor in a deeply flawed movie, is more deserving, and I would argue against him winning for this movie as well.
Actress in a Supporting Role Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water aka Elisa Fucks a Fish WHO I THINK WILL WIN: And here we get the third predictable actor win! With both a Golden Globe and the SAG Award, if Allison Janney doesn't win for I, Tonya -- easily the only Oscar that movie has any chance of winning this year -- it will be the biggest shock of the evening.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I'm on the fence between Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf. I'd be thrilled for either of them, but Laurie Metcalf doesn't play the campaigning game, which, unfortunately, really does hurt her chances. She's just been along for the ride on the awards circuit, happily clapping for the other people who are winning in her category.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I do love Octavia Spencer. Who doesn't? But she doesn't need an Oscar for a role in which she talks casually about the penis of an amphibian-man with the woman who fucked him. I'm sorry, she just doesn't!
Animated Feature Film The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I do think Pixar Animation Studios will win the day in this category as usual this year, and nab the award for Coco.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: And Coco, a deeply moving and visually beautiful animated film, will deserve it.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: The animation in Loving Vincent is indeed impressive -- but it's the only impressive thing about an otherwise incoherent movie.
Cinematography Blade Runner 2049, Roger A. Deakins
Darkest Hour, Bruno Delbonnel
Dunkirk, Hoyte van Hoytema
Mudbound, Rachel Morrison
The Shape of Water aka Elisa Fucks a Fish, Dan Laustsen WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Dunkirk is such a technically flawless movie, this is where I think its likely multiple wins will begin.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Blade Runner 2049 is the only movie among these nominees for which I graded the cinematography as high as a A-. It really is the most visually impactful of these films.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: The cinematography in The Shape of Water (aka Elisa Fucks a Fish) was . . . fine. Have I mentioned I don't really get the excessive love for this movie?
Production Design Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water aka Elisa Fucks a Fish WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I have a feeling The Shape of Water (aka Elisa Fucks a Fish) might actually win this one, it's so visually stylized, combined with its widespread love just generally speaking.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: And that widespread love is missing from Blade Runner 2049, which really is the most impressive among these nominees. It even deserves this award more than it deserves Best Visual Effects -- the effects in the original Blade Runner were truly ahead of their time, and those of its sequel are not. But the production design still presents an impressively well-lived-in universe, if a bit unrealistically unevolved in the advanced thirty years of its setting.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Of all the impressive challenges met by Dunkirk, production design is hardly the first one to come to mind.
Costume Design Beauty and the Beast, Jacqueline Durran
Darkest Hour, Jacqueline Durran
Phantom Thread, Mark Bridges
The Shape of Water aka Elisa Fucks a Fish, Luis Sequeira
Victoria & Abdul, Consolata Boyle WHO I THINK WILL WIN: If enough people actually see the movie, this might be the one Oscar Phantom Thread actually wins. It's about a fashion designer, after all, and the many dresses and gowns featured are exquisite.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Phantom Thread, for the reason mentioned above.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Beauty and the Beast was actually a delightful surprise of a movie, but I can't say its costuming, while wholly appropriate, exceeded expectations.
Directing Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water aka Elisa Fucks a Fish WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Given his film's 13 nominations, and the fact that Three Billboards' Martin McDonagh was actually shut out of this category, Guillermo del Toro is the clear frontrunner here.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Among these nominees, Jordan Peele. None of the other films listed here were as timely, or as intricately layered with deep meaning, heart, horror and humor, as Get Out was. He's not going to win, but he should.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Say it with me! "The Shape of Water, aka Elisa Fucks a Fish!" That's the one that's going to win, though.
Film Editing Baby Driver, Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos
Dunkirk, Lee Smith
I, Tonya, Tatiana S. Riegel
The Shape of Water aka Elisa Fucks a Fish, Sidney Wolinsky
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri, Jon Gregory WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Another technical category likely to go to Dunkirk, which is put together with intricate precision. It also curiously lacks a certain amount of humanity, leaving it feeling somewhat oddly sterile, but it still pulsates with urgency -- and nothing can take more credit for that than the film's editing.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Of these nominees, I actually was the most impressed with the editing in I, Tonya, which superbly conveys the story from multiple viewpoints, sometimes contradicting each other, but always coherent.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Considering Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri weirdly omits nearly all the minority characters meant to be vital to the plot, I'm mystified that movie even got nominated in this category.
Makeup and Hairstyling Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder WHO I THINK WILL WIN: This one's easy: Darkest Hour, in which Gary Oldman is quite impressively transformed into Winston Churchill, who he actually looks nothing like.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: A win for Darkest Hour, among these three nominees, would be deserved.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I never even saw Wonder, but the deformity of that kid's face, even judging from trailers alone, could never stand up against the makeup job done on Gary Oldman.
Music (Original Score) Dunkirk, Hans Zimmer
Phantom Thread, Jenny Greenwood
The Shape of Water aka Elisa Fucks a Fish, Alexandre Desplat
Star Wars: The Last Jedi, John Williams
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri, Carter Burwell WHO I THINK WILL WIN: People love The Shape of water (aka Elisa Fucks a Fish) so much, they'll probably throw an Academy bone to it here.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: You know what? I don't actually care.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Of all the awards Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri does not deserve, this would be the dumbest one to give it.
Music (Original Song) "Mighty River," from Mudbound, Music and Lyric by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq and Taura Stinson
"Mystery Of Love," from Call Me By Your Name, Music and Lyric by Sufjan Stevens
"Remember Me," from Coco, Music and Lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
"Stand Up For Something," from Marshall, Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Lonnie R. Lynn and Diane Warren
"This Is Me," from The Greatest Showman, Music and Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul WHO I THINK WILL WIN: This is a really tough one to call, although it's not uncommon for the signature song of a widely beloved Pixar movie to win in this category, which may give "Remember Me" the edge.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: The Sufjan Stevens songs in Call Me By Your Name are as comforting and cozy as the film itself -- this is the one that gets my vote, from the best movie of the year.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: The Greatest Showman was 2017's paean to great efforts leading to towering mediocrity, which is as much reflected in its music as anywhere else in the movie.
Visual Effects Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Perhaps this will be the single Oscar won by The Last Jedi.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: None of these films was especially inventive when it came to visual effects, but I suppose The Last Jedi actually came closest -- it certainly did the best at turning its effects into art.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: As much as it pains me to say it -- because I liked it way more than either Kong: Skull Island or War for the Planet of the Apes -- Blade Runner 2049 is the least deserving in this specific category, especially considering how it failed to live up to the promise of its predecessor, one of the most visually influential movies of all time. It's a truly compelling movie ripe for discussions about the very definition of what it means to be human -- as was the original Blade Runner -- but the effects here spend too much time attempting to re-create a world rather than trying to move it forward. I never saw Guardians of the Galaxy, but I gave higher grades to the special effects in all three of the other movies in this category.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay) Call Me By Your Name Screenplay by James Ivory
The Disaster Artist, Screenplay by Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
Logan, Screenplay by Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green; Story by James Mangold
Molly's Game, Written for the screen by Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound, Screenplay by Virgil Williams and Dee Rees WHO I THINK WILL WIN: After being narrowed down to these five contenders, I think Adapted Screenplay may very well be the one Oscar Call Me By Your Name actually wins. If not that, then it will be Mudbound. The other three films just don't have enough going for them otherwise.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Call Me By Your Name, hands down -- an easy answer for me since it was the best film of the year.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I'm kind of astonished Molly's Game, with its relentless and oppressive voice-over narration, even got nominated. I guess just being Aaron Sorkin has its many conveniences.
Writing (Original Screenplay) The Big Sick, Written by Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
Get Out, Written by Jordan Peele
Lady Bird, Written by Greta Gerwig
The Shape of Water aka Elisa Fucks a Fish, Screenplay by Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor; Story by Guillermo del Toro
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Written by Martin McDonagh WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Given its miniscule chances elsewhere, Get Out might actually have the edge here.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I would be truly happy for Jordan Peele to win for Get Out, but this is the single nomination for The Big Sick, which I felt was the second-best movie of the year. Give that movie an award, already! It's wonderful all around, but its utterly unique and delightful script is easily the best thing about it.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: The more I see Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri getting nominated for awards it does not deserve, the more I resent it. It deserves an award for screenwriting least of all -- it has great performances by actors who elevate its flawed material.
Best motion picture of the year Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water aka Elisa Fucks a Fish
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Given the recent surge in momentum, I was thinking Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri might actually wind up with the Best Picture award. But, upon further reflection, I think it will merely have to settle with acting awards. Thirteen nominations is a lot, and that definitely gives the edge to The Shape of Water. Which means, as I have made abundantly clear, this year's likely winner for Best Picture is a movie about a woman who fucks a fish. Okay, okay, "Amphibian Man"!
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Call Me By Your Name. Duh. Do yourself a favor and watch this movie. And then watch it again.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: My acknowledgment of the many flaws of Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri notwithstanding, I really, really do not want a movie about a woman who fucks a fish to win Best Picture. But, it probably will.
(Nominations for foreign language film, documentary feature, documentary short, animated short, live action short, sound editing, and sound mixing were also announced, but I don't know enough about them to make any worthwhile observations.) The 90th Academy Awards telecast will air on ABC Sunday, March 4 at 4 p.m. Pacific Time. .