I'd Like to Thank the Academy
(And the nominees are . . .)
And just like that, Everything Everywhere All at Once becomes the frontrunner—something I never, ever would have suspected when that film was released all the way back in April. I enjoyed that film a great deal, and gave it an A-minus. I reject the idea that it's the best film of the year, but am thrilled to see such an unconventional film, at least by historic Academy standards, get heaped with eleven nominations—the most of any film this year, followed by All Quiet on the Western Front and The Banshees of Inisherin with nine nominations each.If recent years are any indicator, huge numbers of nominations are no guarantee of wins (The Irishman was nominated for ten Oscars in 2020 and didn't win any of them). Still, 2023 is showing how the Academy Awards are evolving, an organization and an institution in flux, learning how to adapt to shifting motion picture industry landscapes while diversifying its voting body. The slate of nominees this year is both unusually satisfying overall, and featuring a stunning number of nominations for films I haven't seen, or in some cases never even heard of. In the case of All Quiet on the Western Front, I had no opportunity to see it in any local theaters, and although I knew it had a certain amount of buzz as a Netflix movie, I truly had no idea it had this level of Academy buzz. It's now at the top of the list of movies I still need to see.
How about we just get right into it?
Actor in a Leading Role Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Brendan Fraser has been the frontrunner for months, but most of that was before general audiences saw the truly mixed bag that was The Whale. I will freely admit I frequent the odds-making website godderby.com, where they still rank Fraser at the top—but, with Austin Butler given the very same odds. I have a real feeling Austin Butler will edge him out in the end.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I'm all about Colin Farrell here, and not just because I think he's the hottest thing on legs (his not being particularly hot in this movie notwithstanding). There has even been some speculation that he could win this award, but I'm not holding out hope there. Both Brendan Fraser and Austin Butler have far more momentum.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Honestly? I'm not really here for the discourse that says Brendan Fraser deserves an Oscar for a great performance in a movie that is admittedly deeply problematic. I would love for Fraser to get an Oscar; I really like him as an actor. Just not for this movie, which does not deserve to be rewarded.
Actress in a Leading Role Cate Blanchett, Tár
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once WHO I THINK WILL WIN: For ages, Cate Blanchett has been the clear winner. That was before Everything Everywhere All at Once got eleven nominations, putting Michelle Yeoh neck and neck with her. It would usually be relevant that Blanchett already has two Oscars, but I'm not sure about that anymore, with the demographic changes of the Academy. So this is a really tough call. Right now I lean ever so slightly toward Cate Blachett.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I also think Cate Blanchett deserves the award. Her performance in Tár is brilliant, and far better than either of the other roles for which she won Oscars (The Aviator and Blue Jasmine).
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I don't care that I haven't seen To Leslie. The fact that she managed to snag this nomination via a weird last-minute social media campaign is just dumb.
Actor in a Supporting Role Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once"> WHO I THINK WILL WIN: You can all place your bets right now. This one is going to be Ke Huy Quan.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: My vote here would go to Barry Keoghan, whose performance in The Banshees of Inisherin is stellar. I won't be mad at Ke Huy Quan winning, though.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I have nothing particularly against anyone here (even though I hadn't even heard of Causeway, another movie I guess I need to seek out). If pressed, though, I suppose I would say Judd Hirsch makes the least sense—but only in this particular instance, in competition with the others. He's still great and he does give a great, if brief, performance in The Fabelmans.
Actress in a Supporting Role Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once WHO I THINK WILL WIN: The odds right now are on Angela Bassett, who, incidentally, becomes the first acting nominee from the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: My vote here goes to Kerry Condon, whose performance in The Banshees of Inisherin did not get nearly enough attention in my opinion. I was delighted to see her get nominated. Her odds aren't that much lower than those for Angela Bassett, and if the Academy sheds a lot of love on Banshees, the edge could go to her. It's tricky, though: for the specific performances, I feel strongly that Condon deserves the Oscar, but for an entire career, Angela Bassett is long overdue.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: As much as I loved Everything Everywhere All at Once, here I'm going to say Stephanie Hsu, whose nomination I see as just a product of momentum in the broad love for the movie she's in. But I felt her performance was the weakest, most self-conscious in the film.
Animated Feature Film Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I honestly wouldn't have any idea if not for Gold Derby, which says Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio is ahead in this race. I'm kind of amazed to see, though, that Marcel the Shell with Shoes On is not far behind it.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: And I would rather see Marcel win this than Pinocchio, much as I enjoyed both. In my mind, though, of the three of these I actually saw at least, Turning Red beats them all, with its themes both universal and unprecedented in any film of its genre.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Nobody needs to be giving the sixth film in the "Shrek universe" an Oscar.
Cinematography All Quiet on the Western Front, James Friend
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths, Darius Khondji
Elvis, Mandy Walker
Empire of Light, Roger Deakins
Tár, Florian Hoffmeister WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Apparently this is one race All Quiet on the Western Front is ahead in. I need to see that movie!
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I guess I'll go with Tár, the only film in this bunch I was a huge fan of. Even though I wasn't especially enamored with its cinematography specifically.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Bardo is absolutely the most "showy" of the films here, in terms of cinematography. The fact that it's practically begging for this award, though, puts me off of it. Also, there's a reason this is the sole Academy Award nomination that film got.
Production Design All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I think this will be one of a few undeserved awards Elvis is likely to win.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Babylon did not really work for me overall, but its grand production design can't really be denied.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Did I mention Elvis?
Costume Design Babylon, Mary Zophres
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Ruth Carter
Elvis, Catherine Martin
Everything Everywhere All at Once, Shirley Kurata
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Jenny Beavan WHO I THINK WILL WIN: It may be that this is the only award for which Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is a lock.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I'm also going to go with Wakanda Forever on this one. The film has its flaws, but much like its predecessor, the costume design is flawless.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Elvis needs to just . . . shut up!
Directing Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, Tár
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I am increasingly convinced that this will be yet another year with a split between Best Director and Best Picture, and that Steven Spielberg will win this award.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I didn't even realize it until this very moment, but if I were voting right now . . . I would actually give this one to Todd Field. He's not going to win this one though.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I would not be unhappy with any of these people winning, actually.
Film Editing The Banshees of Inisherin, Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
Elvis, Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
Everything Everywhere All at Once, Paul Rogers
Tár, Monika Willi
Top Gun: Maverick, Eddie Hamilton WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Everything Everywhere All at Once is almost certainly the frontrunner here.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: And you know what? If Everything Everywhere All at Once truly showcased anything at all, with its massive amount of dimension-hopping, it is wildly skilled editing.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Evlis in this category? Please. If anything, that movie had too little editing.
Makeup and Hairstyling All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I fear that the Academy will give an award to The Whale just for its fat suit.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I would also give this one to Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. That film just has a stellar look, all around.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Neither Brendan Fraser's fat suit in The Whale nor Tom Hanks's fat suit in Elvis should be encouraged with any kind of award.
Music (Original Score) All Quiet on the Western Front, Volker Bertelmann
Babylon, Justin Hurwitz
The Banshees of Inisherin, Carter Burwell
Everything Everywhere All at Once, Son Lux
The Fabelmans, John Williams WHO I THINK WILL WIN: At the moment I'll put my money on The Banshees of Inisherin here.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: To be perfectly frank, I can't remember the score from any one of these movies. They could run a random lottery for this award and I wouldn't care any more or less.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: See above.
Music (Original Song) "Applause," from Tell It Like a Woman, Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
"Hold My Hand," from Top Gun Maverick, Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
"Lift Me Up," from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler
"Naatu Naatu," from RRR, Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose
"This Is a Life," from Everything Everywhere All at Once, Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne WHO I THINK WILL WIN: "Naatu Naatu" seems to be the favorite in this category . . .
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: . . . which would be delightful. The rest of the nominees here are almost shockingly bland tracks, especially coming from superstars like Lady Gaga or Rihanna. You know what's going to be a showstopper live at the Oscars telecast? A live performance of "Naatu Naatu."
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I truly love both Lady Gaga and Rihanna. Neither of their snoozefest songs need an Oscar.
Visual Effects All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun Maverick WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I mean . . . duh. Avatar: The Way of Water.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I mean . . . duh. Avatar: The Way of Water. The visual effects are the reason to see that film, which wowed me like no other film has in more than a decade.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I really enjoyed The Batman a lot, and it has several stunning action sequences. But, it really can't compete with the other films here when it comes to visual effects.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay) All Quiet on the Western Front, Screenplay - Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Written by Rian Johnson
Living, Written by Kazuo Ishiguro
Top Gun: Maverock, Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
Women Talking, Screenplay by Sarah Polley WHO I THINK WILL WIN: This category seems to be a bit of a toss up. But, it may just be the only one of the two nominations for Women Talking to get a win.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Among these nominees, I'll also have to go with Women Talking. But, check back with me after I see All Quiet on the Western Front.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I truly don't even understand how or why Top Gun: Maverick is nominated in this category.
Writing (Original Screenplay) The Banshees of Inisherin, Written by Martin McDonagh
Everything Everywhere All at Once, Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
The Fabelmans, Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner
Tár, Written by Todd Field
Triangle of Sadness, Written by Ruben Östlund WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I may be tipping toward this movie at the expense of Everything Everywhere All at Once too often, but I'm still going with The Banshees of Inisherin here.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I'm actually tempted to go with Triangle of Sadness here, which I loved just as much, but ultimately my vote goes to the deeply nuanced screenplay for Tár.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: All five of these films are worthy. It's nice when a category does not feature a dud.
Best motion picture of the year All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I never would have imagined it possible nine months ago, but right now it really seems as though Everything Everywhere All at Once is going to take this award.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Tár, by just a hair, is the best of these films. It doesn't have a chance in hell of winning this award.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Oh, shit, how much time do you have? Avatar: The Way of Water. Elvis. Top Gun Maverick. The Academy is just throwing a bone to people who want to see populist films get nominated—or three bones, really—and none of these have any business even being considered for Best Picture.
(Nominations for international feature film, documentary feature, documentary short, animated short, live action short, sound editing, and sound mixing were also announced, but I don't know enough about them to make any worthwhile observations.) The 95th Academy Awards telecast will air on ABC Sunday, March 12 at 4 p.m. Pacific Time. .
Actor in a Leading Role Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Brendan Fraser has been the frontrunner for months, but most of that was before general audiences saw the truly mixed bag that was The Whale. I will freely admit I frequent the odds-making website godderby.com, where they still rank Fraser at the top—but, with Austin Butler given the very same odds. I have a real feeling Austin Butler will edge him out in the end.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I'm all about Colin Farrell here, and not just because I think he's the hottest thing on legs (his not being particularly hot in this movie notwithstanding). There has even been some speculation that he could win this award, but I'm not holding out hope there. Both Brendan Fraser and Austin Butler have far more momentum.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Honestly? I'm not really here for the discourse that says Brendan Fraser deserves an Oscar for a great performance in a movie that is admittedly deeply problematic. I would love for Fraser to get an Oscar; I really like him as an actor. Just not for this movie, which does not deserve to be rewarded.
Actress in a Leading Role Cate Blanchett, Tár
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once WHO I THINK WILL WIN: For ages, Cate Blanchett has been the clear winner. That was before Everything Everywhere All at Once got eleven nominations, putting Michelle Yeoh neck and neck with her. It would usually be relevant that Blanchett already has two Oscars, but I'm not sure about that anymore, with the demographic changes of the Academy. So this is a really tough call. Right now I lean ever so slightly toward Cate Blachett.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I also think Cate Blanchett deserves the award. Her performance in Tár is brilliant, and far better than either of the other roles for which she won Oscars (The Aviator and Blue Jasmine).
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I don't care that I haven't seen To Leslie. The fact that she managed to snag this nomination via a weird last-minute social media campaign is just dumb.
Actor in a Supporting Role Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once"> WHO I THINK WILL WIN: You can all place your bets right now. This one is going to be Ke Huy Quan.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: My vote here would go to Barry Keoghan, whose performance in The Banshees of Inisherin is stellar. I won't be mad at Ke Huy Quan winning, though.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I have nothing particularly against anyone here (even though I hadn't even heard of Causeway, another movie I guess I need to seek out). If pressed, though, I suppose I would say Judd Hirsch makes the least sense—but only in this particular instance, in competition with the others. He's still great and he does give a great, if brief, performance in The Fabelmans.
Actress in a Supporting Role Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once WHO I THINK WILL WIN: The odds right now are on Angela Bassett, who, incidentally, becomes the first acting nominee from the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: My vote here goes to Kerry Condon, whose performance in The Banshees of Inisherin did not get nearly enough attention in my opinion. I was delighted to see her get nominated. Her odds aren't that much lower than those for Angela Bassett, and if the Academy sheds a lot of love on Banshees, the edge could go to her. It's tricky, though: for the specific performances, I feel strongly that Condon deserves the Oscar, but for an entire career, Angela Bassett is long overdue.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: As much as I loved Everything Everywhere All at Once, here I'm going to say Stephanie Hsu, whose nomination I see as just a product of momentum in the broad love for the movie she's in. But I felt her performance was the weakest, most self-conscious in the film.
Animated Feature Film Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I honestly wouldn't have any idea if not for Gold Derby, which says Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio is ahead in this race. I'm kind of amazed to see, though, that Marcel the Shell with Shoes On is not far behind it.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: And I would rather see Marcel win this than Pinocchio, much as I enjoyed both. In my mind, though, of the three of these I actually saw at least, Turning Red beats them all, with its themes both universal and unprecedented in any film of its genre.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Nobody needs to be giving the sixth film in the "Shrek universe" an Oscar.
Cinematography All Quiet on the Western Front, James Friend
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths, Darius Khondji
Elvis, Mandy Walker
Empire of Light, Roger Deakins
Tár, Florian Hoffmeister WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Apparently this is one race All Quiet on the Western Front is ahead in. I need to see that movie!
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I guess I'll go with Tár, the only film in this bunch I was a huge fan of. Even though I wasn't especially enamored with its cinematography specifically.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Bardo is absolutely the most "showy" of the films here, in terms of cinematography. The fact that it's practically begging for this award, though, puts me off of it. Also, there's a reason this is the sole Academy Award nomination that film got.
Production Design All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I think this will be one of a few undeserved awards Elvis is likely to win.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Babylon did not really work for me overall, but its grand production design can't really be denied.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Did I mention Elvis?
Costume Design Babylon, Mary Zophres
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Ruth Carter
Elvis, Catherine Martin
Everything Everywhere All at Once, Shirley Kurata
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Jenny Beavan WHO I THINK WILL WIN: It may be that this is the only award for which Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is a lock.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I'm also going to go with Wakanda Forever on this one. The film has its flaws, but much like its predecessor, the costume design is flawless.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Elvis needs to just . . . shut up!
Directing Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, Tár
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I am increasingly convinced that this will be yet another year with a split between Best Director and Best Picture, and that Steven Spielberg will win this award.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I didn't even realize it until this very moment, but if I were voting right now . . . I would actually give this one to Todd Field. He's not going to win this one though.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I would not be unhappy with any of these people winning, actually.
Film Editing The Banshees of Inisherin, Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
Elvis, Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
Everything Everywhere All at Once, Paul Rogers
Tár, Monika Willi
Top Gun: Maverick, Eddie Hamilton WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Everything Everywhere All at Once is almost certainly the frontrunner here.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: And you know what? If Everything Everywhere All at Once truly showcased anything at all, with its massive amount of dimension-hopping, it is wildly skilled editing.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Evlis in this category? Please. If anything, that movie had too little editing.
Makeup and Hairstyling All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I fear that the Academy will give an award to The Whale just for its fat suit.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I would also give this one to Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. That film just has a stellar look, all around.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Neither Brendan Fraser's fat suit in The Whale nor Tom Hanks's fat suit in Elvis should be encouraged with any kind of award.
Music (Original Score) All Quiet on the Western Front, Volker Bertelmann
Babylon, Justin Hurwitz
The Banshees of Inisherin, Carter Burwell
Everything Everywhere All at Once, Son Lux
The Fabelmans, John Williams WHO I THINK WILL WIN: At the moment I'll put my money on The Banshees of Inisherin here.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: To be perfectly frank, I can't remember the score from any one of these movies. They could run a random lottery for this award and I wouldn't care any more or less.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: See above.
Music (Original Song) "Applause," from Tell It Like a Woman, Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
"Hold My Hand," from Top Gun Maverick, Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
"Lift Me Up," from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler
"Naatu Naatu," from RRR, Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose
"This Is a Life," from Everything Everywhere All at Once, Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne WHO I THINK WILL WIN: "Naatu Naatu" seems to be the favorite in this category . . .
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: . . . which would be delightful. The rest of the nominees here are almost shockingly bland tracks, especially coming from superstars like Lady Gaga or Rihanna. You know what's going to be a showstopper live at the Oscars telecast? A live performance of "Naatu Naatu."
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I truly love both Lady Gaga and Rihanna. Neither of their snoozefest songs need an Oscar.
Visual Effects All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun Maverick WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I mean . . . duh. Avatar: The Way of Water.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I mean . . . duh. Avatar: The Way of Water. The visual effects are the reason to see that film, which wowed me like no other film has in more than a decade.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I really enjoyed The Batman a lot, and it has several stunning action sequences. But, it really can't compete with the other films here when it comes to visual effects.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay) All Quiet on the Western Front, Screenplay - Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Written by Rian Johnson
Living, Written by Kazuo Ishiguro
Top Gun: Maverock, Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
Women Talking, Screenplay by Sarah Polley WHO I THINK WILL WIN: This category seems to be a bit of a toss up. But, it may just be the only one of the two nominations for Women Talking to get a win.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Among these nominees, I'll also have to go with Women Talking. But, check back with me after I see All Quiet on the Western Front.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: I truly don't even understand how or why Top Gun: Maverick is nominated in this category.
Writing (Original Screenplay) The Banshees of Inisherin, Written by Martin McDonagh
Everything Everywhere All at Once, Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
The Fabelmans, Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner
Tár, Written by Todd Field
Triangle of Sadness, Written by Ruben Östlund WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I may be tipping toward this movie at the expense of Everything Everywhere All at Once too often, but I'm still going with The Banshees of Inisherin here.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: I'm actually tempted to go with Triangle of Sadness here, which I loved just as much, but ultimately my vote goes to the deeply nuanced screenplay for Tár.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: All five of these films are worthy. It's nice when a category does not feature a dud.
Best motion picture of the year All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking WHO I THINK WILL WIN: I never would have imagined it possible nine months ago, but right now it really seems as though Everything Everywhere All at Once is going to take this award.
WHO I THINK SHOULD WIN: Tár, by just a hair, is the best of these films. It doesn't have a chance in hell of winning this award.
WHO I THINK SHOULD NOT WIN: Oh, shit, how much time do you have? Avatar: The Way of Water. Elvis. Top Gun Maverick. The Academy is just throwing a bone to people who want to see populist films get nominated—or three bones, really—and none of these have any business even being considered for Best Picture.
(Nominations for international feature film, documentary feature, documentary short, animated short, live action short, sound editing, and sound mixing were also announced, but I don't know enough about them to make any worthwhile observations.) The 95th Academy Awards telecast will air on ABC Sunday, March 12 at 4 p.m. Pacific Time. .